CMG , Mexican Grill update

The usual then and now;

cmg s 2012cmg sept 2012

We had not looked at it for a while but it did as predicted falling close to the target of $275. From there it has rebounded and could still go higher, perhaps even closing the gap. After that it is adiós , possible to about $125. What is unclear at this junction is whether or not this is the end of wave 1 or just wave 4 of one. The shape of the descent will differ but the target will not.

CMG , why can’t I be like this?

cmg 2012 lcmg s 2012

Somebody bought this at $442.50. There are times that I wish I  could be equally careless and unconcerned about just about everything, but certainly Mexican food. Is this the momentum play par excellence? or just another instance of herding? $275 is the first stop after that there is a lot of open air. We did not say sell at $350, but certainly wondered out aloud about where this was going, giving a not too subtle hint that it might be down, not immediately but soon. Now the party is over!

CMG, Chipotli Mexican Grill

cmg

See previous blogs on this one. At one point it looked like a very good sell (at around $340), but then it proceeded to do nothing for 5 months. That is it tops three times at about $350. Then as now, the stock is trading at a p/e of 53 and yields 1.05% A sell??

CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG july 2011

Last Febr. this stock looked like it needed to go higher, but not by too much , perhaps $290. Now that we are at $340 it is definitely a sell. One possibility is that there was a “running triangle” wave 4. I am not even sure if that is a legitimate pattern. In any case we are exceeding the confines of the channel. The stock is up 8-fold in 2.5 years. Again this begs the question whether or not we are already in the next bubble. The stock is trading at a rather modest 56 P/E, yield is non-existent. If it is topping a drop of $120 is a minimum.