Cl, Colgate Palmolive

On Jan 27th, 2010, about a year ago we recommended selling this stock at just under $80. Here is that chart.

CL Jan 27 2010

At the time the stock was near its upper parallel trend-line , always a good spot to sell even if the count was not clear. That was a little premature but today the stock is at the same level and the count is, relatively clear. here is the chart again;

cl 2011

For greater clarity this chart represent a 10 year shorter time-frame but the red trend-line from the original is more or less duplicated in the new chart. Two counts come to mind. The alternative one (not shown) would have at least two 1-2s at the beginning and  , therefore, also two 4-5s at the end. In that scenario the top could already be in. In the count shown we assume that the stock is in its 5th and last wave. Given the degree of overlap that has already occurred chances are very high that the stock is forming a diagonal (wedge). This is the only structure that allows for overlap, it also only exists in either 5th, or c waves. It is an exhaustion pattern that is ,almost invariable, retraced in its entirety, in this case back to $40. You can wait for it to go to about $90 or just say thanks for the ride.

Cl Colgate Palmolive

cl Jan 2010 2 CL July 2010

In January we suggested this one might have topped, sofar that was correct as the stock never traded higher. Recently it is dropping like the proverbial stone, that it does so is not amazing, that it stayed up for another 1/2 year is. Perhaps it has started its correction for real in which case this one has a long way to go. To see the previous comments go to the index at the top of the website, it will give all entries by ticker, there is only one other for CL.

CL Jan 27, 2010. Colgate Palmolive.

This stock is as pure as the soap etc. that it sells. It is a defensive stock par excellence. The p/e at about 20 and yield of 2% are not bad for this kind of blue chip. Evenso the chart is downright ugly. See below.

 CL Jan 27 2010 cl Jan 2010 2

We did catch the triangle, if that is what it is, for a $20 ride , but after that left it alone. Looking at it now it looks to be right at the top of its trend line, perhaps 5-waves up from way back when, 1971 or so. This one could easily return to about $50, in any case the chances of going much higher are pretty slim. If you own it, it is a sell.