The usual, then Oct. 31 2014, and now charts;

We just want to warn against getting carried away, regardless of what the bandwagon might be. The Central Fund warns us that the obvious may just not be that obvious. If we knew the answer we would tell you. Keep in mind that the ideal 4th wave of previous degree on gold is not at $1050 or so but more like $850 to $900! ($10 or so on this fund). We never got there which warns you that it may come yet. Above $19 this would be negated but by that time you are getting close to a 62% retracement.

The usual then, then and now charts;

The ideal target seems to be about $9/$10. The A and B should ,perhaps, be just a little to the left as shown in the second chart. Wave 4 is, as always, the target par excellence. In this case all the more so as this is the starting point of the extended 5th wave on the way up. It is also where the correction retraces about 62%. The beige arrows show roughly what should be expected in the next little while. All these charts are still available in this blog.

Then – August 2011 – and now charts;

Almost three years ago the implied prediction contained in the EW count was that this fund should fall to about $10. This is the level of a 4th wave of previous degree and also the approximate level where the fund would retrace about 62% of the entire run up from the lows of 2001 to the highs of 2014. So far we have not done that yet so the possibility still is very real that we will. The retracement from the high of $26 should unfold as an A-B-C. What we do not know is how complex a shape it might take. A rough guess would suggest that the time down should be about  1/3 to 1/2 of the time spent going up. So somewhere between 3 to 5 years. The A-B-C shown in the chart fits the best. If correct we are presently in wave 4 of C.

This outlook does not contradict what one might conclude from ABX or Goldcorp. In fact a small e up now to complete the triangle would fit quite nicely with ABX which is now down by at least $5 since we suggested it was a sell.

Then, exactly a year ago, and now charts;

We are not sure of anything, then or now, but we reached the 50% target at $16 and then some, all the way to $13.83 (Big chart does not show that low). That target was based on the retracement of the last leg up. If calculated on the entire travel from zero it works out to a bit above $13. By the way, the fund already has dropped below it’s channel as drawn and may already be overlapping earlier lower degree waves. If not already it would certainly happen at <$12 which essentially means that a complete free fall is possible  as it will then be safe to conclude that a complete 5 wave sequence was completed at the $26 peak. Always use a stop!