CCO update. $24.50

CCO update

Cameco’s target remains the same. $22.50 is perfect, but we would raise the $24 (I want to do this trade) level to $24.50, just in case the lower boundary line stops the drop from going that far.

We are now at about the 3 mile island level disaster, a 5 on this scale. Americans are buying iodine pills and the Chinese are hording salt. In Germany they want to shut down their 17 reactors, or at least not refurbish them as planned. The Chinese have put some of their plans of building 20/40 or so new ones on hold. Here in Canada a slight leak from the Bruce station has become front page news.  The mood is clearly not favoring this stuff but at the same time no one has a good answer as  to where is the energy going to come from. There is no known alternative.

CCO, a little more precise, buy at $24+

cco mar17 2011

Where you put your buy order is a matter of how afraid you are of being wrong. “Objectively speaking”, as if such a thing exists, $24 seems to be the more precise number. Suppose you do get filled at that level than you should expect a rebound of ( (44-24)xo.38=7.8) about $7.8 over less than 1/2 year, which happens to be about a return of 78% per annum. If the stock drops another dollar or two (to $22) it will not change the outcome one iota. If the stock does not drop below $25, your return will be zero. Simple a lost opportunity? the question is, is there another train coming by behind this one?

CCO to $23 ??

CCO mar 16 2011

A few days ago I mentioned that CCO might trade down to $23 if the gap in the middle were  to be applied. I cannot get all of this drop on the chart, but the way it works is that you typically get an equal number of waves on both sides of the gap as the gap itself is more often than not wave 3 of 3. Doing that we get something like the above. At $23 the stock should be a buy, if only temporarily. By that time it will have dropped  (42-23=19) $19 and should then have a rebound of at least $5  (or 20%). Put your order in now, as if it does get there you will not!