The usual then – Dec. 15, 2013 – and now charts;

In our previous blog, now more than 2 and 1/2 years ago we expressed having a negative bias for this stock, based, in part, on the price of the stuff itself. It looked like there was a triangle wave 4, but in reality, if it even was one it would have been a minor b-wave. In retrospect we got the direction correct but not the count. This is not an A-B-C but a double zig-zag or an A-B-C X A-B-C. Our best guess now is that the rot will stop at a level approximately equal to the top of wave 1, twenty years ago.

Looking at the short-term chart a case can be made that the ideal level to buy is around $14;

The 5th wave of C of the second A-B-C appears to be a wedge that has one more leg to complete itself. Needles to say, we have no idea what might cause an increase in demand, perhaps Trump wins and he wants to bomb the hell out of the rest of the world, perhaps the recently re-elected Mr. Wall of Saskatchewan rereads the “Joy of Monopolies” and finds economic religion once again. Whatever, at $14 this is a good buy according to my understanding of EW.

The usual then –Oct 15, 2012- and now charts;

We have not looked at this stock for a while. If you had bought when we recommended doing so and did not get stopped out you are still up about 25%. We would step aside right here as it is not clear whether the next big move is up or down. Our bias now is to the downside, particularly if we take a look at the price of the stuff, uranium;

In our opinion there was a bubble here and in nearly all cases the decline after the peak retraces right to the starting point or beyond, so $10 or so is entirely within the range of possibilities –(think Thorium, maybe). Also the B-wave is exceptionally clear which means a new low down the road.

Then (June) and now charts of Cameco. Still looking for $30 or so sometime in the future. We are probable in an a-b-c correction, that is in the worst case, that has a very long and tedious a-b-c as a b, There is a distinct triangle in the b!. We are close to the old lows of $17.25 so if you were to buy this at say $18 with a stop at $17 you would risk a single dollar against a potential gain of $12 or so. That is a very respectable risk/reward ratio. Chose your own tolerances and methods but which ever way you slice it , this looks like a buy to us.

Do use a stop as lower levels are still possible, see longer term charts in previous blogs.

It has been about 8 months or so since we last commented on CCO. We were, and are, essentially constructive on the stock but were wrong in the low of $15 that we were expecting (see green on the detailed chart). After that a large rebound was to happen (to $27.50) which in fact almost did happen. Here are todays charts;

In green, in detail, what we were expecting, in black what we actually got. There is very little room for the big triangle shown. The stock should trade under $15 given the clear a-b-c move from about $15 to $45, but, in order for this to become a big 4th wave it cannot go below about $13. For the triangle to hold it has to go up right away in wave c. If the triangle is not operative we are probable looking at an a-b-c X a-b-c corrective structure that cannot go below $13, but, on second thought, it actually can (for instance if the top shown is not the top of 3 but 5 instead!). All told, probable a buy with a very tight stop-loss. If all this is too confusing, wait for the sequel, it may be more straightforward. Fundamentally this should be a buy somewhere here, with a huge upside.