BTE.UN

BTE.UN , Baytext Energy Trust and ENB

Hamilton

On Feb. 15 we recommended getting out of this stock at about a dollar or so above where it was then trading and certainly at the $35.50 double top level. Here is today’s chart;

BTE.un 2010 sep

Had you followed the recommendation, you would have potentially missed a single dollar! Since then it has struggled to get back up there but sofar without quite making it. If the fact that the stock is trading at about the same level when oil was at $147+, is not enough, consider that the past 6 months the stock has traced out a pretty clean wedge, diagonal, rising flag, or pennant. Not good.

Next we should get wave 3 down OR, if this all turns out to be just an A-B-C, a wave C. Either way back to 28 or lower. Enbridge falls in the same “too good to be true”category. Of course one of its main businesses is the distribution of natural gas .

enb2010

BTE.UN, Baytex Energy Trust, Feb 2010

Hamilton

Energy companies come in all sizes and shapes. Some are vertically integrated and large like Shell and Exxon, some are small and very specialized in their particular field. Others are mostly in the business of finding gas and again others in the business of finding oil ( the two go hand in hand only to a certain degree). Some are “service” companies such as Schlumberger or Precision Drilling and again others are more or less utilities delivering the stuff to the consumer, like Enbridge. Consequently they all behave differently but in the main all have lost about 5-10% of their value since oil came of the $86 or so level a few weeks ago – EXCEPT this one, Baytex (and Enbridge). Not sure why that is exactly but it is a sell here or on the next dollar up, as it will double top like IVN above. This is not a certainty but it does happen too often to ignore and I have yet to meet the guy that lost money taking profits.

BTE.UN feb 2010