Baidu has intrigued us, in good Chinese fashion it does not want to reveal it’s intentions. Last time (see previous blog) we were hesitatingly bullish on the stock with an immediate target above $125 on account of the expanding wedge in June and July. It went to $140. For the past year or two the stock has stayed within a narrowing range between $165 and $100 (nice Fibo relationship). Then and now we are ambivalent but prefer the downside this time. The bullish case is represented by the purple triangle which is technically incorrect as both boundaries are downward sloping; they should be in opposite directions. Also we fell out of the channel, tried unsuccessfully to get back in making the blue interpretation more plausible. Also, we have not reached the 4th wave of previous degree ($90), nor have we retraced a decent  (50/60%) portion of the $150+ rise in the previous 3 years.

For the fun of it we have a chart below that has nothing whatsoever to do with Google but perhaps it does with china;

I know that the similarities are not perfect but clearly they do look alike and perhaps the common factor is China.  Where one goes the other might go as well. You can move the charts around to better compare. It is an ETF. This triangle, if there is one, is kosher so to speak.

Baidu, the Chinese equivalent of Google reported better than expected earnings and shot yp as a result. In the detailed picture it is clear that the 5th wave of C was a “diagonal” and consequently the stock should go at least to $125, and do so fast. In the big picture a case can be made that the entire sideways movement for the last year or more is a flat A-B-C, perhaps regular, perhaps irregular but almost certainly a flat (3-3-5). Chance are that this is then a 4th wave of the larger up trend that has lasted for all these years. If correct a 5th is missing, or seems to be missing. (There are a number of different counts that would lead to very different conclusions). Use stops when playing this from the long side.