When you get this close to zero it becomes increasingly more difficult to say that the low is in. However the move down (on a log-scale chart) looks a lot more like an a-b-c correction than anything else. Also since the time spent moving down is precisely equal to the time spent going up, they are vector equal but in opposite directions, we are inclined to believe that the low is now in. A break of the trend line would certainly be very helpful.
If you missed it the first time , here is a second opportunity. We should go back at least to the apex of the triangle AND, in the worst case, that is if this is a corrective move it should still be an a-b-c. A buy here.
AVL is doing precisely as expected, it is now up about 30% since our last comments about a month or so ago. We expect at least a double but would add the following thought. Since QRM has not even started the process it has more potential upside and in all other respects the charts are pretty well similar. You can own both or sell one for the other. We do not know the fundamentals so do speak to your enlightened broker who will no doubt tell you what the best course of action is.
The counts shown are not precise, the main thing is the triangle that both stocks sport.
There seems to be some misunderstanding as to where the triangle actually is. It is not somewhere in the bottom that we have been scratching for the past three months or so. It is the pattern that took seven months to form and that fluctuates between a high of $4 and a low of about $2.35. It measures about 3.5 blocks or $1.75 which is roughly the distance in the minor 5th wave thrust. Nearly always, after the thrust, the stock reverses at least to the level of the top of e ($3), but equally often all the way to the highest point in the triangle, in this case $4. These are minimum values as obviously a new bull market could take the stock much higher. By the way, there is no credible alternative. If one were to assume that this was not a 4th wave triangle but a b-wave triangle, then the stock would have to trade with a negative value!, accordingly that is not possible.