ANF, Abercrombie & Fitch

Then – Nov. 13 2011 – and now charts,

anf nov 13 2011anf mar. 4 2015

The B-wave. Here is a good example of the B-wave that seems to prop up everywhere. The stylized  version was not followed tick by tick, it has taken much longer and the drop was more erratic but the main principle holds so far. Already the stock lost well over half its value since Nov. 2015 and we are not even close to our destination.

ANF, Abercrombie & Fitch

ANF b2 2011 anf s

This stock dropped from about $78 to $47 in a matter of a few weeks. The recent quarter performance was actually quite good despite a “miss” of 14 cents, if you bothered to read the details. This retailer of moderately upscale clothing sold a lot more than the previous year but suffered from a slight compression of margin. Were there warning signs to prepare you for  a drop of almost 40%??

1. The top was actually in 07, and one can argue which of the three is the real one, but the 5 waves up and the very distinct wedge for the 5th wave pretty well guaranteed that that was the top.

2. The fairly clear B-wave from the lows, almost retracing the entire drop warns that the move is not “real”.

3. The triple top, just as in 07 is a classic formation telling you to get out, or at least step aside.

4. The a-b-c corrective wave 2, retracing, again, almost all of wave 1, warns you that it too is not real.

5. The p/e ratio , now at 21 according to Bigcharts must have been in the low 30-ties, not cheap by any standard.

There will be more of these.