Just a few days ago we suggested buying this stock below the market at around $33, which was roughly an equality point between two down legs over the past year or so, and the 62% Fibonacci point. (see previous blog) As it happens the stock dived down to $31.50 on horrific results and then rebounded briefly to above $37. This is and inside-outside day reversal pattern and a big one moving almost 20% in a single day and right on time to boot; here is the chart;

These charts do not do the move justice but they will have to do. Had you bought at $33 or below, you would have been up 10% for the day if you sold at the close. These type of days promise a little more usually. $40 is the top of a 4th wave of minor degree and $48+ is the top of wave 4 of the second downleg. Both could be reached. At the very least one should get a small a-b-c pattern, so far there is only an a, perhaps incomplete at that.

Long term ask your broker for real fundamental research, not the “we hold management in high esteem” rubbish. Veritas has just rated the stock as a sell over the longer term and they believe, according to a BNN presentation, that gold itself will move to about $1000. Right or wrong , who knows, but at least refreshing compared to all the Pavlov talking heads.

Agnico might well be a buy at these levels. It is only a dollar or two away from having lost 62% of its value (about $33). There are two possible counts, one has an a-b-c finishing at about these levels and the rest is all up. The other, a larger irregular A-B-C that now needs 5 waves down in C. in that case we are in wave 4 that could easily take us up about $10 at least before 5 starts. So in both scenarios we should get reasonable upside. In detail:

The wave 4 could go as high as $52. The stock is trading at levels where it was in 1986, gold itself is trading at levels triple that at least. By the way, I do not mean to convey the impression that I like gold, just this stock, just for a little while.

This is from 4/01/11. Read the blog, it calls for much lower levels. It does give the precise details;

Now it is going all the way;

So you bought gold stocks because it was a good hedge? Well this one is down 45% or so and has a bit more to go ($25 at least). It is all in previous blogs.

Earlier this year (in April) we warned that Agnico had probable completed a nice B-wave and would go down big time and certainly to the level of the triangle in the middle of that B-wave. Here is un update;

The stock dropped today, supposedly on increased costs resulting in less than expected earnings. We are now in that range of the triangle. We may get a pause but this should continue down to less than $30, see also previous blogs.