There are a total of 11 blogs on ABX, most negative or very negative (for instance in July of 2011 I already had a target of $17 in mind), except for the last few where I thought this could turn out to be a buy , albeit just for a trade (as was done once before successfully). It keeps slipping down just a little further than I would like. Here is the total analysis once again.

The big picture is on the left. Typically stocks should drop back to the lowest level in the triangle wave 4. That would be $17 (see old blogs). Another interesting point is the 61.8% retracement level, off $55.84 that works out to $21.33.  If applied to just the increase since 1983 you would have to add the base value of $0.88 to this giving you $22.21 . Then there are a number of trend-lines and equalities mostly clustered around $22. The RSI at 20% or lower is now definitely more oversold than anytime in the past 3 years. Our friends at that big trading house saw gold drop well beyond their prediction and may now actually be in a buying mood, after all their MO is to create a commotion and then pick off those that panic the most. So, in short, we continue to think this is a buy for a trade.

If stopped out, we would buy it again. with a stop again at $2 below the purchase level.

Using a fine pencil, pretty well there give or take 10 cents.

ABX is nearing our target of $25. We would buy at that level with a stop maybe two dollars lower. We would be looking for a wave 4 as a minimum, that is a rebound of about $10. Our friends at Goldman Sachs, who have every central banker in their rolodex, just announced their dim views on gold going forward. The Chilean government just announced an injunction against ABX’s Pascua-Lama project, which may be a blessing in disguise. From an EW perspective everything is in place for, at the very least, a wave 4 rebound of roughly $10. We are precisely on the bottom trend line and there are a number of specific niceties happening that only an EW-aver would appreciate. Otherwise it is worth noting that both the RSI and MACD would support a nice rebound. A buy!