S&P, Dow and DJT

S&P may 10 2018Dow may 10 2018DJT may 10 2018

Here we have the S&P, the Dow and, for a change, also the DT Transports.

The S&P has the clearest triangle. It is symmetric and looks pretty good. To be complete the thrust has to rise above the black line, the top of wave d. The Dow is roughly in the same position but needs to rise a little more. The transports do not have a triangle at all, at best it is a range and it is far from breaking out to the upside.

So far the move up does have some of the characteristics of a thrust. It has been up quite relentlessly for two days now.  If it does prove to be a triangle we should shoot up by about the measure of the “mouth” of the triangle. Then it is straight back down. We will see. This is a case where you do not want to count your chickens even one minute too early.

Walmart and China imports

WMT may 8 2018Fred china imports

Walmart is the largest private employer in the US.with approximately 1.5 mln. “associates” in the US alone and another 1 mln. elsewhere. It is a stock company but for all intents and purposes privately run by the Walton family. It has about $480 billion in revenue a year, the highest of any company in the World.

Despite the different timeframes of the above two charts it is hard to escape the notion that there is a strong correlation between Walmart’s stock value and the volume of exports from China, according to US customs. Moreover exports from China to the US pretty well equal sales by Walmart, both roughly at $500 bln.

So, after this very scientific evaluation, one cannot help but wonder what would happen to WMT shares if the US administration succeeds in its attempts to reduce imports from China by about $200 bln. over the next few years? Will the stock drop by 40% as well or a little further? EW suggest a drop to about $43, or 60% ( the high was at about $105), where the expanding diagonal triangle starts. What about jobs, jobs and jobs? Perhaps by a similar amount and definitely as an unintended consequence.

TSE sheds light on triangles.

TSX may 7 2018

There is no triangle in the TSX. In fact there is a clearly impulsive first wave down, about 1600 points, followed by a clear A-B-C counter trend correction of roughly 1000 points. For the connoisseur it is a beautiful Fibo ratio. C is close to being equal to A, just a little more. The structure is perfectly clear. The RSI will soon be over 70%. This thing could turn down in a third wave any moment now.