We certainly did break out above the upper line of the wedge as drawn in yesterday’s blog , but that does not necessarily mean that we are going to a new high.  The last , give or take 3 days we had about 700 points up, interrupted by 500 down and then, later today again 700 points up. That is the signature of a corrective move which is not bullish.

What could be happening is that the wedge is simple longer than first anticipated. Wave 2 was a zig-zag and even though it is quite normal for waves 2 and 4 to take the same form, I would still prefer alternation which would lead to an irregular flat or a triangle. A little bit of overlap is normal for this “diagonal” so that does not tell us much.  Of course, we could actually be in a third wave of the initial bear market.  For this to become bearish in a serious way, the wave from the 2 would have to become a third wave. We will see.

This chart is taken roughly an hour before today’s close. It shows the entire C wave in a little more detail and guess what, surprise surprise the move stopped right on the trend line. That was good for roughly 400 points so with yesterday’s late rise of 300 points we are up about 700 points. Almost as much as we lost the day before.

If this is indeed the end of the C-wave of an A-B-C correction then we should keep going up. If not we might continue down. Right now I have no idea other than breaking either the upper or the lower line of the diagonal will probable tell us where we go next, but that is sort of a tautology just in case you did not notice.

As you know, I am biased towards the bearish scenario, this is the bullish one. I can only get this chart using hourly dots and consequently the actual low today was more than 100 points below what this chart shows, 23344 to be precise. From that low it has already bounced 300 points or so in the last half hour. The S&P, for the first time in a long time, broke the 200 day moving average. The chart potentially is showing a 5-3-5, A-B-C corrective move in which the C is a diagonal (all waves in the diagonal should be 3s). If so it is complete.

    The problem is that a series of 1-2s could look very much the same so I would step aside and just watch this in total disbelief. Maybe Trump will start praising Amazon tomorrow.

Below is a picture of CAT, similar to the Dow;