This is the same chart as in the previous blog using the futures. Nowadays they trade more or less around the clock and around the World. They are easier to manipulate as trading can get rather thin at certain hours of the day or night. Having said that , both charts present essentially the same picture and that is a picture of an initial wave 1 down followed by an a-b-c correction that corrects roughly 60-65% at the end. That the c wave is unable to exceed the high of the a wave does not bode well.

All the ingredients for a rough economic time ahead are present. Interest rates have been ridiculously  low for some twenty odd years which more or less dictates that they can only go up and this is indeed the stated policy by the Fed. and other central bankers. Employment at 3.8% can hardly go lower. Government spending in one form or another is virtually out of control everywhere while at the same time the discretionary portion of budgets is getting smaller and smaller. Military spending is going up in many parts of the World. Etc, Etc. In short we have never had it so good for so long, which , paradoxically, is the problem.

If this is in fact wave 3, then one should expect a drop of at least 4800 to 7800 points given that wave 1 was about 3000 points.

This has taken a long time. The immediate low was on Feb. 9, now more than 4 months ago. The Dow has remained within the range set in the aftermath of the initial drop. That is not the case for the Nasdaq and/or the Russell 2000 both of which have achieved new highs. This diversity and “slow-motion” action is typical of major tops if that is what we have here.

Nothing in the action of the Dow is perfectly clear. The initial drop looks like 5 waves but certainly can also be viewed as a completed a-b-c correction down. The b-wave shown can likewise be viewed as either a single diagonal or a three-wave structure. Much would depend on where one assumes the top of a to be, as shown or one step earlier. The diagonal c wave fails to make a new post wave one high as is but not if one assumes the latter interpretation. With the TSX within 100 points or so of its high and now displaying a relatively clear five waves up, there is good reason to suspect that this is it.