Here is one possibility. We are presently in a wave 4 of 3, then a wave 4 followed by a wave 5. That would complete a first wave down which  by that time may have travelled about 3000 points. Today,for instance, chances are real good that no deal can be made given the political hostilities in Washington. A shutdown may give that 5th wave push. Who knows.

This would be just wave one of wave A of a large corrective downturn.

Last Friday the Dow did another 200 points or so before stopping. Today the futures indicate another drop of perhaps 250 points. The chances that this is just a small a-b-c correction are getting smaller by the minute.

In any event it is not a good idea to stay long as the 4th wave of previous degree is at about 7000!

Below is a chart as per 1.30 pm.

There are other ways of counting this but at the very least we would need another 4-5, that is if we assume that 3 is done at about these levels, which is not at all clear at this moment.

Just a little update. So far we have two almost equal legs down with one intermittent upleg, lasting for five days. This could be a standard textbook 5-3-5 a-b-c correction good for about 1000 points. It will all depend on what transpires later on, but there can be no doubt that this is damaging for the longer term prospects.

At the time of Trump’s inauguration this stock was somewhere around $150 so it has rallied  about 200 points since then. Is this fear of missing out, FOMA in short, or is this a real Trump rally. You may recall that Trump at first trashed the company for overcharging a few billion dollars for the building of the soon to come new Air Force Ones, the presidents mode of transportation. Then he had a great campaign-like gathering at one of the Boeing hangars, a hughly successful event. Next Boeing files a complaint against Bombardier alleging unfair trade practices and the import tariffs are set to increase by 300%, also the company comes to an agreement for a joint venture,  an effective take-over, of the one competitor to Bombardier, Embraer of Brazil. Now Canada’s acquisition of new Hornets is possible in danger. Overall the company’s involvement in defense activities is enormous boosting its prospects given Trump’s love for all things in uniform.

    Whatever the case, and despite our incorrect call for a peak around $250, we still think you should be out. This is complete madness. The stock was good for almost 1000 Dow points as it goes straight up. Keep in mind also that building planes is hard to account for. Everything is predicated on the “normative” number of planes that they expect to build. This is pure guesswork right from the start.