Year: 2017

BB, Blackberry update

Hamilton

The usual then, April 18, 2016, a year ago, and now charts;

BB april 19 2016bb may 29 2017

So a year ago we strongly favoured the upside ( see also big picture chart in the previous blog), but just to be safe we recommended a stop at $7.25  Had you bought at the time it would have cost about $9.25 a share to buy the stock. The stop would never have been triggered. We were going for the triangle annotated in red as our much preferred strategy. It is shown in green in the chart on the right.

Right now the B wave triangle, that is a B in an A-B-C structure appears to fit best. The potential target is, perhaps, as high as $18 but given the clear overbought situation we would not wait and would, instead, sell now. At about $15 that should translate in a gain of 38% in a single year.

The real question here is what was the low? The low in 2013 or the low in 2014. If it was the latter, a case could be made that the stock is actually in a bull market and consequently has a lot more upside potential. We have a problem embracing such a view in the face of a 38% gain.

HD, Home Depot

Hamilton

hd may 17 2017

This is a stock I would sell, assuming of course that I was fortunate enough to have owned it and, and this is very important, not stupid enough to have sold it at a much lower level.

It has a well formed channel, a wave count that is clearly 5 waves even if they are not exactly the ones shown, and we are at the top of the chart! A drop to about $100 is easily within the possibilities so the risk/reward ratio is running against this stock.

TSX again

Hamilton

Today’s drop to 15357.24 negates the triangle concept, at least the way it was presented yesterday. Just another 110 points or so and the whole idea can be ruled out completely. When a triangle does not work, it is often a series of 1-2’s which definitely does not bode well for the near future.

TSX update

Hamilton

tsx may 16 2017 btsx may 16 2017

Here we have the TSX once again, big and small. We have absolutely no idea where the wave count presently sits over the past decades or more. The only thing that we do note, and this is with some clarity and confidence, is that we have managed to gain roughly 1/2 in just one year coming into the year 2017. We are basically double topping and the market is hesitating to advance further. This is an amazing performance considering that oil is still trading at less than 1/2 of its peak level just a few years ago and Canada’s position in relation to its neighbour to the South is clearly more precarious than it was pre Trump.

However the old formula that price= earnings/interest rate is still in play and at its extreme everything is priced at otherwise idiotic levels as interest rates are at, or are approaching zero. So one must remain alert to the possibility of yet another move up.

In the shorter term chart there appears to be a distinct possibility of a triangle forming. If so we are just about completing wave d of that triangle. For the purist EW among you, the readers, I point out that wave a can be counted either as a 3-wave structure or a 5-wave one. In the latter case that would negate the triangle! Assuming there is one anyway, the thrust  that should start in June should reach roughly 16200 (700 points above the low of e, yet to come).

Such a spurt up to that level still leaves open what the upleg from the early 2016 level actually is, a wave B or a wave 5. We show both counts. Fundamentally we cannot imagine what could possible move this market higher again but that has been the case now for years and certainly has not been a good reliable thing to hang your hat on.

By the way, do not bet on any of this!

Below is a Bigcharts showing at least 2 valid interpretations other than the one above. Not shown is a series of 4-5s. Note also the triple top formation and that for the past 10 and even 17 years the returns have been little more than the dividends. ;

tsx may 16 2017 bb