Month: May 2017

AMZN

Hamilton

amzn may 30 2017

We have been consistently wrong on this stock. It seems to always go higher than one would expect. This time there is again a very nice EW count with a fifth wave diagonal (wedge) into the top, just a dollar shy of the super Mnt. Everest high of 1000. The p/e is at 187X , totally ridiculous by any known standard.

We are not wedded to this precise count as shown as the subdivisions could be slightly different, but when all is said and done this stock is most definitely not a buy. In the last two years at has been climbing in a near vertical fashion, more than tripling so when you do reach the top the first target is 700, next 500 and, as is most often the case, 300 where the 4th of previous resides.

By the way, if the 5th wave diagonal assumption is correct, we have a situation where wave 1 is about 400 points, wave 2 is about 350 points ergo wave 3 must become less than 350 points. As it already has travelled about 300 points it can only go up another 50. Moreover it is already causing a “throw-over”of the upper line.

Below is another acceptable count now that we found a longer chart;

amzn may 30 2017 l

BB, Blackberry update

Hamilton

The usual then, April 18, 2016, a year ago, and now charts;

BB april 19 2016bb may 29 2017

So a year ago we strongly favoured the upside ( see also big picture chart in the previous blog), but just to be safe we recommended a stop at $7.25  Had you bought at the time it would have cost about $9.25 a share to buy the stock. The stop would never have been triggered. We were going for the triangle annotated in red as our much preferred strategy. It is shown in green in the chart on the right.

Right now the B wave triangle, that is a B in an A-B-C structure appears to fit best. The potential target is, perhaps, as high as $18 but given the clear overbought situation we would not wait and would, instead, sell now. At about $15 that should translate in a gain of 38% in a single year.

The real question here is what was the low? The low in 2013 or the low in 2014. If it was the latter, a case could be made that the stock is actually in a bull market and consequently has a lot more upside potential. We have a problem embracing such a view in the face of a 38% gain.

HD, Home Depot

Hamilton

hd may 17 2017

This is a stock I would sell, assuming of course that I was fortunate enough to have owned it and, and this is very important, not stupid enough to have sold it at a much lower level.

It has a well formed channel, a wave count that is clearly 5 waves even if they are not exactly the ones shown, and we are at the top of the chart! A drop to about $100 is easily within the possibilities so the risk/reward ratio is running against this stock.

TSX again

Hamilton

Today’s drop to 15357.24 negates the triangle concept, at least the way it was presented yesterday. Just another 110 points or so and the whole idea can be ruled out completely. When a triangle does not work, it is often a series of 1-2’s which definitely does not bode well for the near future.