Year: 2016

2 Charts

Hamilton

HSI jan 15 2016TSX jan 15 2016

These are not “then and now” charts, they are both as of Jan. 15 2015, that is today. I have deliberately removed or obfuscated the names of the chart in order to leave you, the reader, to guess what they are, or represent. This is not a trick question, that is it is not the same chart twice!

You will notice immediately that the left chart rises at roughly twice the speed of the one on the right, both beginning around 2000 but the left one peaking at 3200 whereas the right one only manages 16000, half as much. Nevertheless all ups and downs on both charts correlate rather precisely and the proportions stay constant over the 28 year time frame. Furthermore the B-wave is very well articulated and in both cases more or less double tops, peaking at or near the upper trend line.

These charts are of entities that are oceans apart, have completely different economies and are subjected to totally different influence spheres. The only common element is that once upon a time they were both part of the British Empire all tough they matured in different ways.

Moving on, here are the then, March 20, 2015, and now charts for the index on the left ;

HSI mar 20 2015hsi jan 15 2016 s

As usual the “wedge” was a super clear and predictive pattern. Also it targets the base which is still about 4000 points away at the very least. This is perfectly in line with our expectation for the other index to drop at least another 2000 points.

If you haven’t guessed yet, the charts are of HK’s and Toronto’s indices. Talk about the correlation approaching 1 globally.

AC, Air Canada update

Hamilton

The usual, then 4th of June, 2015, and now charts;

ac june 6 2015AC jan 14 2016

We hit the top right to the day, warning that this stock’s value would be cut in half (at least). In little more than one half of a year the stock fell from $15.07 to a low of $8. There is obviously more to go as the “wedge” should be retraced in its entirety at about $5.

The RSI is already well into oversold territory so there are various ways that this might be accomplished by making the correction more complex, but in the mean time you have saved yourself a lot of money already by exiting the stock.

TSX update

Hamilton

The usual then, Nov. 12 2015, and now charts;

tsx nov 12 2015 stsx jan 13 2016

Yes, I do love blowing my own horn. But then I ask, where else did you get a prediction of four thousand points down? So far at least, we are right on schedule. If correct, we are now in a third wave, that will become the so-called point of recognition. Most often that is some sort of mid-point so we still have a way to go!

Just for clarity, we expect a low below the “great recession” low, possible by a very healthy margin.