After having lived in Chicago for a number of years, and working in the financial sector, I had no idea that Chicago even had a stock exchange. Apparently it has existed for quite some time , since 1882, and does about 5% of all trades in the US. No doubt the new owners have a lot of expertise to bring to the table.
Then, July 31, 2015, and now charts as usual;
Today you can tell your neighbour that you saved yourself $67 or 35% in just one day even before the opening. If he asks how tell him you read and follow this blog. If he then asks if it is expensive, tell him it is free, at least for now.
By the way; from the G&M
Of the 44 analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates that cover LinkedIn Corp, the consensus rating is a buy. The rating changed on January 11, 2016 when it was upgraded from a hold.
Some things never change. At the time the stock was already down $80 or so from the peak of $276, had no earnings, a beta of 1.66 and so on. Break the line and there is only hot air.
The count works better as a large A-B-C, in fact the count shown has to be wrong if the top is where we think it is, in Feb. of 2015.
SNC has been confusing. At one point we had the B-wave top one notch to the left, where the wave 5 top is now. Then it seemed possible that a huge triangle was forming. This has not yet been negated but a counter indicator has developed in the form of another triangle as shown on the right in detail.
If the count as shown is correct this triangle should be the 4th wave of C down, C has to be 5 waves in this count. Nevertheless it looks a lot more like a B-wave triangle. This is a possibility if from the high of early 2011 we are actually in a double zig-zag correction, that is an a-b-c X a-b-c. The only certainty that we have is that this is a triangle and it is near completing the last e leg, which cannot exceed $44. It measures about $13, or $21 if you take the 1.62 usual multiple. That gives the potential of a drop to $24/$21 depending on where e will end. This is pretty close to the 4th wave of previous degree, and would have the added advantage that both legs of the second zig-zag would be about equal.
In terms of trading – we want this blog to be, first and foremost, actionable – because most investors will not, or cannot, go short we suggest going long a put option. If it is out far enough it will not decay too much should the stock go above $44. At the very least sell it if you own it.
Asea Brown Boveri, ABB, the Swiss/Swedish engineering/construction (mainly electrical equipment) firm, has a similar chart. It is actually a little more colourful as they almost went bankrupt in 2002. Here it is;
The outlook is equally somber.
You will recall that we were not sure if Shell had made a 5th wave into the 2014 high or simple a B-wave. This would have some bearing on what would happen next. Looking at Conoco Phillips there is absolutely no doubt that it is a B-wave so we will adopt that. We are now in C which should become 5 waves down.
Roughly the two stocks seem to have travelled the same path and our most recent call on RDS.B, that it was a buy – see previous blog – was spot on. Today’s events raise some questions. Shell saw its profits drop by 44% which was better than expected and better than a number of other integrated oils. Conoco, on the other hand lost 3.8 bln. and announced a cut in dividends. As a result Shell went up 5/6% and Cop went down a similar percentage.
Shell may have hit the absolute bottom at $35.95 and should then go up a lot. Looking at COP it seems to be in a small triangle and still needs a bit more down. Even if it does not, this would probable be a small degree b-wave triangle that is still a correction. To accommodate this one would have to be on the alert that perhaps for both stocks we are only in wave 4 with the third wave being extended. You are up about 25% on Shell and may wish to hold on to about $48 or so. There it might be good to step aside. We will try to keep an eye on it, the RSI has more to go.
In the meantime you can tell your neighbour that you made 25% in two weeks and are hoping for 33%. If he asks how you did this tell him by reading this blog. If he then asks if it is expensive tell him it is free, at least for now.