Year: 2016

UTX update.

Hamilton

The usual then, July 21,2015, and now charts;

UTX july 2015utx feb 20 2016 b

Today’s chart covers a longer period of time which creates a wider channel but otherwise the analysis is the same. Notice that the longer timeframe has two triangles in it. As stated ad nauseam in this blog, triangles occur only either as 4th waves or as B-waves. The first is a fourth wave and the higher one a b-wave within a B-wave. We assume that because of the symmetry and the fact that it is not substantial larger than 130% of the A wave. We are down about another $25 or a similar percentage from the July 21 date. From the peak the stock is down about 37% More importantly it is now below the channel. This C leg should unfold in a 5-wave sequence. Soon the first wave of that sequence should be complete as shown in this detailed chart;

utx feb 20 2016

The bounce up in wave 2 of C often hits the channel from the underside at about $92 or thereabouts. Then the real fun starts in wave 3.

WFT, West Fraser Timber update

Hamilton

The usual then, a year ago Feb. 3, 2015, and now charts;

wft feb 3 2015wft feb 20 2016

We were expecting at least a $30 drop, roughly from $75 to $45, the 4th wave of previous degree. We are at about $40 now and this is a good point to step aside. We expect a normal a-b-c correction and  so far we have only completed the a leg. The b should start right here at about $39 and could retrace 40% or more of the drop, so it could easily go to about $54. Then the c leg should start with a target of $30 or lower.

For the record, we have not always been correct on this stock, but we remind the reader that they should not let losses run. If you cut your losses at 10% say, you can be wrong 4.5X to account for this 45% gain. If you do better than 4.5X wrong against 1X right you still win! This is all the more so if we are talking about opportunities missed as opposed to actual losses.

SNC update

Hamilton

snc feb 20 2016

So it looks now as if the triangle is complete. See our blog of a fortnight ago. If this is the correct interpretation then $28 or $21 is a real possibility. This would be negated by a rise to $44 or above. This triangle as a 4th wave “fits” the bigger picture. Judging by where the apex of this triangle is, a low might occur sometime in the month of August.

FTT, Finning update

Hamilton

The then, Aug. 2014, and now charts as usual;

ftt aug 16 2014ftt feb 18 2016

So you saved yourself half your money or a little more, but we are still not sure what count is correct so we would go neutral here with a downside bias as we prefer the B-wave count. Finning is big in the Alberta area and all over the west. More pain is definitely possible but the short-term chart is decidedly unhelpful.

Note; If it was a B-wave then we are now in C which continues as a 5-wave structure; that is not visible on short-term chart. If on the other hand the latest top is wave 5, you would now expect an a-b-c down. The a could be complete so a sizable b could be next.