We are contemplating the possibility of a triangle here as a B-wave within an A-B-C correction. Potentially this could take the stock to the 4th wave of previous degree.
Year: 2016
HL, Hecla Silver update.
The usual then, March 16, 2016 or a good month ago, and now charts;
Sometimes the Gods do smile on the EWaver. This is a perfect example of the “diagonal”, the expanding type as the get wider as they progress. The structure is always a 3-3-3-3-3 and it does not have to reach the lower trend line at the end. It should reverse violently from that low point. The minimum target is invariable the base of the structure, in this case approximately $4, but obviously it could go a lot higher and perhaps even make new all time highs. But sticking to what we know for certain, $4 is the target and it should be reached, in the worst case, in a corrective a-b-c.
The c and a are almost equal. We are at the $4 level. It was a violent move. The RSI and MACD are showing extreme levels so this could be it. We simple do not know. Ashanti Gold, AU has the same pattern but still has two or three dollars to go up to reach it’s initial target of $19 or so. Similar patterns are all over the place, FVI, Fortuna is already making a new high. FCX, AU, ABX, PAA, K, XAU etc have either doubled or tripled so from here things are less certain or clear. The trend is your friend, unless, of course, you outstay your welcome.
Below is a chart of Fortuna. We are not sure what to make of it but things are back to normal very fast in some stocks;
SPX or S&P, fractals anyone?
Here is a definition of a fractal;
A fractal is a natural phenomenon or a mathematical set that exhibits a repeating pattern that displays at every scale. It is also known as expanding symmetry or evolving symmetry. If the replication is exactly the same at every scale, it is called a self-similar pattern.
The example I like best is that of the coastline. It does not matter whether you take a 20km. piece of coastline or 20 meters or even 2 centimeters, the pattern is essentially the same for all three. In the above charts we have the Bigchart showing roughly 20 years worth of action in the SPX. It has been a very controversial issue whether or not the top was in with the tech bubble in 2000. The Gainsville boys have generally subscribed to this view and therefore could not embrace the idea that the great recession breakdown was simple a wave c in a 4th wave, to be followed, of course, by a 5th wave. There is a lot of deference for these guys so most EWavers went along with that count. Furthermore broader market indexes generally do support that view. But they have been wrong before!
Value, as we have pointed out ad nauseam , is simple an income stream divided by 1 plus the interest rate. With interest rates at zero or close to that value simple becomes the sum of all future positive cash-flow, which is infinite. Therefore a market index cannot be overvalued with interest rates this low. Of course interest rates at zero is an economic distortion of huge proportions but, given that they exist and even if you do not accept them as real, it is still possible that the index goes a lot higher. Should the smaller fractal follow the bigger one, assuming the bigger one does not rise much further, we could see the SPX approach 2500, or roughly another 25%, no problem at all. Not sure I believe it!
The past 3 /4 months have been exceptional. First the year started with the worst 10 days ever – ever goes back to 1894. Then the recent rise, starting around Febr. 11th, has displayed the best performance for the past 90 years and is still ongoing. Back to back madness like this should warrant caution, but this stupid thing may still go up further as long as the Central Bank narrative keeps the market in it’s spell.
BB, Blackberry
Blackberry is at a dangerous juncture, it has been triangulating for three or more years and has yet to show it’s hand. The positive thing is that the RSI is already near rock bottom which suggest the next move could be up. Use a stop at around $7.25
In the big picture C could be over but it could still need a 5th wave;
