Month: November 2016

TCK.B update

Hamilton

tck.b nov 28 2016 btck.b nov 28 2016 s

We got this one just right but got out way too early. If our EW count was correct, and it certainly seemed to be, we completed  a large flat A-B-C at the end of last year. Since then the stock is risen, presumable, in a first wave of a new bull market. The only caveat is that we have never ever seen a rise of this magnitude in such a short time frame, almost 10x in as many months. We are now going vertically.

If there are still believers in the Efficient Market Theory, I suggest they have a chat with the person that sold at $3.64 early January. Clearly Fed action all around the world has created a binary system that does not adhere to the good old premises of yesteryear. If EW itself still applies is an open question but if it does the upcoming wave 2 will wash out most of wave 1.

DE, Deere & Co.

Hamilton

de nov 27 2016 bde nov 27 2016 s

The RSI for this stock is off the map. Part of the chart is detached from the rest as a result of two gaps, one down and one up.

Profits 4 days ago were well down, but with the right spin nobody cares. Their businesses farming, tree harvesting, construction, lawn care and the like are nearly all in a slump and projections for the coming year are also down. But then there is Trump and this gives a lift to everything that a tractor can be used for. Not many of these projects are front-loader-ready so to speak so it looks like we may be overdoing it. A sell in our opinion.

CAT is lagging far behind which is rather as it has a higher P/E .

IBB update

Hamilton

iIBB nov 13, 2016

We love blowing our own horn, nobody else does at least not often. Here is the text from that May 12, 2015 blog ;

    What we have here is a “flat” a-b-c correction that fits in a box that, in this case, has a slight downward skew. This is a particularly well formed example and consequently it is a credible predictor of the next move, which should be up to at least a new high.

    Looking at the bigchart (see previous blog) a reasonable guesstimate of where the ultimate top should come in, is around $400 or so. We know that there aren’t any bubbles, we have that on good authority. But what we also know is that bubbles occur invariable far away from home, that is in areas that we know very little or nothing about. Gullibility increases with ignorance, which we all know is itself bliss. We would not wait all the way to $400.

This was dead on, except maybe for the advice not to wait for $400. Lately every stock seems to have to go to the furthest extreme. Unfortunately , given the number of stocks, ETF’s and situations that we try to follow it is not feasible to always follow through. The size of my staff simple does not allow it, so you, the reader, have to think along! Here you would at least be out or maybe you would even have gone short and saved yourself from a 40% loss or made a gain of a similar amount.

      The latest C wave of a correction, the Trump effect according to some, was meteoric and approaching completion. After that we expect a second A-B-C down to take us, at least, to the 4th wave of previous degree which is around $200 or slightly above. Much lower levels are a distinct possibility. Equality between the two A-B-C’s and a 62% overall correction is at about 140 or so.

  The Trump argument for tech stocks is that these have been powered by foreign brain power. His immigration policies would reduce the availability of such brain power and ergo tech companies would suffer. So why did this ETF shoot up?, are biotech companies not even more dependent on foreign brains? Or is it that scarcity raises all prices, like the tide.

RY again

Hamilton

ry nov 12 2016

RY has gone right to the extreme of , almost, $86. That is an increase of about 330% since the lows immediately after the Great Recession. Much of this is due to multiple expansion, which itself is due to the low interest rates and the corresponding discounted value.  No doubt the increase in real estate values, non inflationary of course, had much to do with it as well. Unless you believe that this will continue, we do not, then you should not continue to own this stock from a trading perspective. The RSI has always been a good indicator and again it has gone into overbought territory twice.