Month: October 2016

RY, Royal Bank update

Hamilton

ry oct 20 2016

In our previous most recent blog on this stock it was suggested that it could possible go as high as $86. Looking at it more closely now that would appear to be just a little too high. $85 is a more reasonable target.

The stock is making a very nice wedge and there is little room to maneuver left. The RSI, always a good indicator, is starting to move into overbought territory and the MACD has been down for half a year. Fundamentally Yellen is brooding about creating a hot economy, sort of like an incubator while Poloz is lowering his sights once again, this time acknowledging that there might actually be a housing bubble. In the mean time our market is almost back at its previous peak despite the fact that oil is still at half the price it was then and after a rerun of the Nortel movie in the form of Valeant. Caution is the better part of valour, so we would exit on the next tiny move up.

Below is a more refined picture including this morning’s action;

ry oct 20 2016 s

XAU update

Hamilton

As usual the then, Dec.23, 2015 and now charts;

xau dec 24 2015xau oct 19 2016

Once again we are amazed at how accurate our EW calls often are! Back then it was relatively easy as there was a very clear wedge in stocks like ABX, which after a triangle truly anchors the count perfectly. No such luck this time as the different stocks show different paths to where we are now. Some have clearly completed a correction recently, implying an upmove directly ahead. AEM, FVI, PAA, AU and, perhaps, DGC are good examples. Others such as ABX itself is not.

Roughly speaking we are not sure if the correction of the 5-waves? down from the peak at the start of this year is over or if this is just half of it, or if we are in a real new bull.  All we can say at this juncture is that both interpretations call for higher levels immediately ahead. Furthermore there is an event that could trigger a flight to safety (at least according to some) into gold stocks, which is tonight‘s3d debate. If you are not already thoroughly sick of this sordid spectacle you probable will be soon! Also it is not true that what happens in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas. This time will definitely be different.

CXR, Concordia again

Hamilton

cxr oct 17 2016

A month ago at about $7 this looked like a reasonable buy. It was not, but today, once again it may well be. It is now possible to put a reasonable credible count on this stock (slightly different from the previous one). It contains a rather clear 4th wave triangle and that adds a lot to the credibility. The RSI and MACD are also supporting a move up soon, perhaps after one more down day.

DOW continued

Hamilton

dow oct 6 2016

A day later and it still looks like a triangle. Normally they have an a-b-c-d-e structure but in certain cases they just go on for a little longer and add f-g-h-i , so 5 legs become 9 legs but the end result remains the same. With the second “debate” scheduled for Sunday and the proximity to the apex of this triangle one would expect something to happen on Monday, good for at least 450 points but possible more like 750. The position of this triangle marginally favours the downside but, again, this can go either way!

If this is a 4th wave triangle, we are presently probable in wave g and only need to add h and i. These can be very short and then we get the upward explosion. This is what Clinton needs to win.  Trump of course, is hoping for the opposite move.