RGLD, Royal Gold

rgld june 4 2016

Originally this was an oil and gas company that had to make a retreat from that business and went into the gold biz instead; very comforting to know. It is one of those royalty/streaming companies that make their living by providing capital in return for part of the “harvest”. They tend to be better diversified as they are involved with a good number of gold mining companies at once and are not that exposed to the operating vagaries of a single mine. The biggest upside is probable from increases in reserves but otherwise the performance is equally vulnerable to drops in the value of the “stuff”. The Queen has nothing to do with this, except that, in the good old days, She owned all the land and the royalties were collected on Her behalf.

    With a little imagination we have come up with a 5-wave count right into the top of $100. From there it did a clean A-B-C down, with C equal to A and a decent drop of about 75%. From here the big question is whether or not that was the whole correction or if it will prove to be more complex. Looking at other gold stocks we would hold on until this stock reaches about $70 – where the B wave has two equal legs a and c, in beige. We are not sure that one would want to wait that long.

DGC, Detour Gold update

dgc feb 26 2016dgc june 3 2016

Back in Febr. of this year we expected this stock to rise to about the level of the B-wave and then crash again. Alternatively an entirely new bull market had started at the $2.50 during the last months of 2014. (One chart is arithmetic and the other semi-log!).

This stock trades out of phase with the rest of the gang. It’s low was two years earlier than the vast majority of gold stocks. Also it is now up more than 10 times the low, a performance that no other gold stock has. At the same time it is not clear why it is approaching the all time high, when gold was at $1900, now when gold is at the $1250 level.

    Given the above , we are open to the notion that we are in a huge flat, 3-3-5 or A-B-C. It could stop here or climb to the all time high and then roll-over into the C leg which should take it below $2.50

    The last quarter income statement shows non IFRS “cash costs”at $637 per ounce and the”all-in sustaining costs” (AISC) at $824. The AISC is expected to be $940 for the near future.  These are middle-of-the-road numbers and as far as I know do not explain the large stock market performance difference. This mine is relatively new having started production a little over a year ago. For this reason it may have attracted more attention by the investing community than would otherwise be the case. We will keep an eye on it.