Oil , the stuff, again.

oil mar 7 2016 trioil mar 7 2016 new low

Just for greater clarity it might be useful to point out that oil could still go lower, albeit after perhaps a year of sideways to higher prices (see earlier blogs!).

There are two ways you can count oil. Both are essentially the standard A-B- corrections. The first possibility has the B in that pattern as a triangle. It is a very compact one and a little distorted but a triangle nevertheless. That triangle then absorbs all the ups and downs between 2009 and 2014. The wave C, that must itself have 5 subdivisions, drops down like a stone in much the same way as it did during the great recession. The entire A-B-C pattern was complete early this year and from here on we are in the new bull market.

The second possibility is that the above is all wishful thinking. The wave started much earlier in 2011 and does an initial 1-2 into 2013. From there wave 3 down takes us to the recent low of $26 or so depending what contract or spot price you are talking about. The roaring bull market the last few weeks is the start of wave 4 that could take as long as a year or more to complete. Then wave 5 takes oil down to about $10. I prefer this count.

The chart, long-term would look like this;

oil mar 7 2016 long term

What it means, if it is correct, that you have a whole year to profitable play with oil stocks, just do not get married to them.