Month: December 2015

Gold, the stuff

Hamilton

Then July 30th and now charts as usual;

gold july 31 2015 bGold dec 4 2015

Back at the end of July we were looking for a wedge in Gold. It could be an expanding diagonal or a contracting diagonal. Our target was about $1050 or so (see blogs). Much depended on where you started the pattern. With the benefit of hindsight we have moved the starting point one notch to the right. This has the effect of sharpening the wedge and giving it a much better look. These are both contracting triangles. The expanding one is below;

gold july 31 2015 vbgold dec 4 2015 messy

The expanding pattern, in green, never materialized but at least the target price was spot on, so far at least. It has become a contracting wedge and there are at least 3 or 4 different ways you can view the pattern, but in the big picture we have to assume that the drop is done. In the minute picture I would not exclude a quick $40 or so up and down sequence just to make the 5th wave a clearer 3-wave affair than it is now. Additionally all three downlegs would become directionally equal and it would get us closer to year-end.

Gold should do well with expansive monetary policies, not if interest are about to increase. Given this weeks events it is therefore odd that gold should spike up today. A little wavering at the very last moment could cause some big swings. Ultimately the upleg should retrace this entire wedge or about 38% of the $900 drop. Both point to a little over $1400.

Zenbanx

Hamilton

                police dog

When you enter any one of York’s regional forests there is a sign at the gate that reads………..

DOGS MUST BE IN CONTROL AT ALL TIMES.

Just like the dog in the picture, our Rhodesians were also always in control but is this really what the bureaucrats meant, or did they mean that you, the owner, must always be in control of your dog? Today few people are taught proper  grammar and most do not know the difference between a noun and a verb and even fewer have heard of a transitive verb.

Here is another example;

zenbanx and being Dutchzenbank dec 3 2015

On the left is the original text from a very lengthy  FQA (Frequent questions and answers) e-mail sent to many potential clients. In this example the confusion is between nouns and adjectives.  I contacted the help desk ( in California) to bring to their attention that this might be a very poor choice of words as they were essentially barring a good number of existing clients from participating, particularly Dutch landed immigrants. Unlike most of the Common Wealth members, Holland does not allow dual nationalities if acquired voluntarily and as a result many never bothered to become Canadian.

It took a little effort and a few tries but in the end someone high up agreed, and the text was changed. It is not the Dutch only that were barred. It takes at least 4 years as a landed immigrant before you can apply for citizenship. A lot of people, millennials in particular,  would not have been able to use Zenbanx’s services.

BNK, Bankers Petroleum

Hamilton

BNK dec 3 2015 bbnk dec 3 2015 s

We were bullish on this stock in 2013, but not nearly enough as it went quite a bit higher than we expected, but we got the direction right. We do not have the brains to create convexity or gamma trade or what ever you want to call it, but we do recognize asymmetric situations and this is definitely one of those. With that I mean that if you win you will probable win more than you would lose if things went against you.

     We have a large A-B-C flat that is a little skewed. It is hitting a bottom connecting line that defines the freedom degree. It has a great EW count with a triangle perfectly positioned as a wave 4- it should therefore return to about $2.60 in the not too distant future. First it should make a new low which was at $1.37. The trendline runs at about $1.20 or a little higher. The RSI, which has been very reliable over years is going to go oversold soon. The MACD is not confirming the new lows. Somewhere between $1.37 and $1,25 this stock is a screaming buy.

    We do warn that this stock may not get to those lows and if it does it may do so just as you are not watching. A limit order for a week or so would be the best course of action.

VRX update

Hamilton

The usual, Nov. 18 and now.

vrx 18 nov 2015vrx dec 3 2015

We are getting close to the line. If drawn properly it runs slightly above $140. I would expect higher levels as in the 50 day moving average or a wave 4 of previous degree, both at about $160 or, perhaps even $185 or so where the retracement is about 38% of the drop. However I would not wait that long and would sell any time over $140 preferring to rather be safe than sorry. A 40+ % gain, at this time and in two weeks, is certainly worth writing home about in any case.