Month: September 2015

S&P Earnings

Hamilton

Earnings sept 10 2015earnings 2

This chart is from www.chartoftheday.com , it is free and anyone can subscribe to it. This particular one depicts the S&P 500 earnings on a semi-log scale which tends to add a little drama to the picture. It may be reproduced but only without annotations and therefore there is a stylised version , home made, next to it.

The chart shows how quickly things migrate from the “financial” world to the real world or main street. Notice that earnings managed to drop to about the same level as they did during the Great Depression. In those days much of the world lived in isolation from their neighbours, with globalization that is no longer the case. The world is very interconnected and the proverbial butterfly wings flapping on the other side can have an enormous impact. No big “black swan” has stepped on stage yet but there are certainly half a dozen extremely worrisome trends that are already recognizable, never mind those that haven’t come to the surface yet.

This blog does not try to predict anything, rather it tries to uncover, using mostly EW, what might be just around the corner. If the count is correct we could be starting wave 3 of C at any moment – waves 1 and 2 are not discernable on this chart. If correct things will get very, very messy. Let’s hope the count is wrong!

WPT update

Hamilton

WPT sept 8 2015

Westport started going up quite nicely in what looked like wave 1. It still looks like that despite a very large retracement. The alternate would be that we are in an a-b-c for wave 4. This is highly unlikely as the stock would almost have to drop below zero and evenso it should first trade up to about $10+ where a small gap is located. Both RSI and MACD are still supportive so we would stay with the trade or even initiate one at these levels.

AVP, Avon update

Hamilton

AVP sept 8 2015 bAVP sept 8 2015 s

There is no change from the June blog except that in the small chart the high point of the b wave is one notch further to the left. This has the effect of lengthening the process but hardly has any perceptible effect on the downside of the price. The $6 target was probable arrived at by my sloppy “eyeballing” the distance. If you look closely at the Bigchart in the June 5 chart, which is identical to the one now shown, the actual target is just below $5, not $6. At today’s lows this target has been met. The first logical upward target is around $9.30

RY, Royal update

Hamilton

ry sept 8 2015

We have looked at this chart for hours and have to conclude that, perhaps, the pattern within the chart represents an A-B-C correction that follows the typical “flat” 3-3-5 structure. In this case the C has a distinct diagonal signature which is normally associated with a termination of the trend, which was down, at least for the duration of this correction if that is what it is.

It is hard to rhyme this pattern with the action displayed by some of the smaller ones such as CWB and HCG both of which are down already 40% or so. But then LB is very close to making a new high. With such mixed signals we have to keep an open mind for developments that do not fit.

Alternative possible interpretations do exist, as in a series of 1-2’s, but none look clean and convincing so be prepared .