Month: September 2015

Nasdaq 100

Hamilton

Chart of the Day 17 sept 2015

You can get these charts for free at www.chartoftheday.com . They are randomly chosen. This one is of the Nasdaq 100, in short the tech index for the big boys. Does anyone see a double top? Anyone see 5 waves up from the 03 lows? To us it looks like a 3-wave B-wave ready to break support at any moment now. Yes, the post-financial crisis rally is still intact but if it breaks there really is nothing to hold it up un till you are down to about 2500/2000, roughly 50%. If this is a “flat” as we think it is, it will fall back to the bottom of the chart and then some.

WFC update

Hamilton

wfc sept 16 2015

We nailed the top on this one rather accurately, see our July blog. At the time this looked like a diagonal but the 30 year plus chart was even more clear. Here again we do not think that the first wave is complete, nor do we believe there is a triangle in the more detailed part. It could go a few dollars higher but then the whole thing should continue down to about $45 for starters. For your convenience we repeat the July charts;

wfc jun 8 2015wfc july 14 2015

CAC40, Paris update

Hamilton

cac sept 15 2015

We go to Paris to find out what is going on in Washington. "Après nous le déluge" was the attitude then as expressed by Madame Pompadour. Freely translated it could be understood to mean “not in our time”. The problem is that it is going to be in our time if this chart is telling the right story. As near as I can tell we are presently in wave 4 of 3 of 1. Regardless of where we are in the count we should under all circumstances get to about 3800 on this round. That would only complete a first wave down! The Fed. would loose some credibility if it does not raise rates at least 1/8. But then Mrs. LaGarde would loose credibility after having impressed upon Yellen that she should not do that. Looks like a no-win, no-win .

P.S. Today, Sept. 16, the OECD, Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, also domiciled in Paris, in a real Chateau no less, through it’s chief economist Catherine Mann, issued a warning to the Fed. as follows;

“Which path they take is really going to be key,” Mann said. “The disconnect between the dot path and what the market expects represents a real communications challenge for the Fed.”

So what are the “dots” ? They reflect what the voting members on the Fed. board individually expect to see in the future. Here it is from Bloomberg. What it says is that collectively they think rates will rise to 3.4% or so by 2017. For chronically short-funded organisations, that is most financial institutions, this is a wake-up call.

fed dot plot

Also it is not, apparently,  a good idea to discourage your daughter from studying that dismal science, economics.

OTC, Open Text update

Hamilton

otc sept 15 2015 lotc sept 15 2015 s

Open Text has followed our script rather precisely, please see previous blogs. We have a nice initial 5-waves down and have nearly completed the first retracement. This may go as high as $65 but we would certainly not wait un till the last moment, in fact we really would not wait at all! From here, or a little higher, we expect wave 3 ( or C) to start and drop towards the wave 4 level of previous degree, that is to about $25. That could be all there is if this is an A-B-C zig-zag correction. However it could also be just part of an initial 5-waves down for a much larger A.  In practical terms you do not want to stick around for a $40 drop.