Month: August 2015

GWO update

Hamilton

The usual then, July 2013, and now charts;

gwo july 5 2013gwo aug 30 2015

For some inexplicable reason we were anticipating a high of about $35. This is neither the double-top level, or the point where c is equal to a of the B wave. The logical target would have been about $37.The actual top of the B-wave was at $37.70. Aside from that the pattern was correct all though , at the time, it would seem rather unreasonable to have expected this to take another two years and a month.

The drop does not look like much but it is almost 20%. Also it erased all the progress of the past two years in little over a month. The channel is broken and we think the trek down to below $10 has started. This was the best performing insurer so the others will , no doubt, follow suite. If you did nothing over the past two years, now is the time to sell. However , do not forget that this blog never, ever, gives investment advice, only discusses EW. Talk to your broker for that solid advice that you can lean on and trust! See detail below;

gwo aug 30 2015 s

TA, Transalta update

Hamilton

Then, a few weeks ago, and now charts as usual;

TA july 29 2015TA aug 29 2015

We had $7.50 as a target. In fact it went to $6 partly due to a “throw-over”. We see this as a buy particularly when looking at the short-term chart. In pink we show a pattern that we have talked about frequently lately, the diagonal triangle. They are classic termination patterns so a solid and perhaps violent rebound is definitely a real possibility.

FCX, Freeport-McMoRan Inc update and copper

Hamilton

First the then, Dec. 2012 and June 24th, 2015, and now charts.

FCX dec 2012FCX june 23 2015fcx aug 29 2015

We were bearish for a lot longer, please also see older blogs, but back in 2012 we set a credible EW target of about $10 and for copper itself of $2.20. FCX with the “Greenberg” deposit in Indonesia is, as far as we know, still the largest copper producer in the World. The $10 target derives from equality  between the C and A legs but did not create a new low, that is below the $8.40 of 2009. We got that with the $7.76 low last week. Copper, see chart below,then, Dec. 2012 and now, conveniently complied by dropping precisely to the $2.20 level.

copper dec 2012copper aug 29 2015

We do not know if Karl Icahn is an avid reader of this blog – we know there are 40.000 but we do not know who they are individually – but supposing he is  and did  take the above to heart and bought an eight and one half percent stake in FCX. If he bought at the low he is now up 25%, not bad for two days work. That represents about $80 mln. It could have been yours!

The 2012 A-B-C EW count for FCX is, of course, completely wrong (C waves must be 5 waves, not A-B-Cs) but the target is nevertheless accurate, at least so far..