Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

Shanghai, on its way?

Shanghai july 9 2015

So the Shanghai index was down roughly 34.6% in less than a month, a good start but nowhere near even the first target (see previous blogs). That represents, from what I have read, something like 3.8 trillion dollars. A lot even for the 3d largest economy – Europe and US are a little bigger. The Chinese must have learned a lot from the Fed. in terms of manipulating the market. They are going a few steps further and are about to shoot those very malicious sellers of stock. What they do not seem to grasp, together with Chairlady Yellen, is that stock markets do not create wealth directly, they only do so indirectly by providing a financing vehicle for companies that can then go on and do their business. In a manner of speaking the stock market is more like a poker game the collective value of which is determined by the size of the wallets of the individual participants and their willingness to gamble. You are not supposed to leave the table when you are ahead, that is bad sportsmanship and frowned upon. But unlike a poker game stock market values can become bloated as the value of the chips change with each bid or offer. The 3.8 trillion and much more, never actually existed and can therefore never be cashed in collectively. Once that is understood things can become a lot worse.

By the way, Greece’s government liabilities amount to something like 340 bln dollars. Compared to China that is pocket change.