CVX, Chevron update

Then, 30th of April, 2015, and now charts as usual;

cvx april 30 2015 scvx july 9 2015

The prediction then and the result now, down some $17 in just two months all based on one little c-wave wedge. The “ideal” level as a first target might actually be more like $85 or so but even so it is probable better to step aside here (see also RDS.B)

Shanghai, on its way?

Shanghai july 9 2015

So the Shanghai index was down roughly 34.6% in less than a month, a good start but nowhere near even the first target (see previous blogs). That represents, from what I have read, something like 3.8 trillion dollars. A lot even for the 3d largest economy – Europe and US are a little bigger. The Chinese must have learned a lot from the Fed. in terms of manipulating the market. They are going a few steps further and are about to shoot those very malicious sellers of stock. What they do not seem to grasp, together with Chairlady Yellen, is that stock markets do not create wealth directly, they only do so indirectly by providing a financing vehicle for companies that can then go on and do their business. In a manner of speaking the stock market is more like a poker game the collective value of which is determined by the size of the wallets of the individual participants and their willingness to gamble. You are not supposed to leave the table when you are ahead, that is bad sportsmanship and frowned upon. But unlike a poker game stock market values can become bloated as the value of the chips change with each bid or offer. The 3.8 trillion and much more, never actually existed and can therefore never be cashed in collectively. Once that is understood things can become a lot worse.

By the way, Greece’s government liabilities amount to something like 340 bln dollars. Compared to China that is pocket change.

GREK, Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF

grek july 07 2015 bgrek july 07 2015 s

Earlier I predicted that the Athens index would not go down. So far that has been correct. Agreed that the markets close might have something to do with it but so what. Looking at what does trade it would seem that there is still some optimism . The National Bank of Greece, NBG as an ADR, that is NOT the central bank just like Bank of America is not, has gone down a little and may actually be a buy at $1 coming from $700, but we would prefer using this 20 stock ETF. How it is priced is a riddle  as presumable the underlying stocks are not trading, but that is a different matter all together. Notice that there is no new low (yet?), but we can already count 5 waves down. Also , in the more detailed chart, there is a rather clear “expanding diagonal triangle” which suggest a violent move back up to about $14 and a bit, roughly 40% from here.

By the way, did anyone notice that the results from the referendum were dead on the golden ratio of 61.8 to 38.2 for whatever that may mean.