GREK and NBG

grek july 10 2015nbg july 10 2015

Just three days ago we showed the GREK ETF as a buy and mentioned that National Bank of Greece was in a similar position. Both sport a clear “expanding diagonal triangle”, a structure that very reliably promises a violent return to its starting point. The first was a buy at $10 and the second below $1. Both traded well below those levels on the 8th of July, the day after the recommendation. We would sell the GREK at $12.50 and the NBG at $1.45 and put the orders in in advance. We have no idea whether or not either or both of these stocks can go higher than those prices, very possible they can but, but we would be perfectly happy with 25% and 45% in about a week  and happy to leave it at that.

     Things are moving along quite nicely on the Greek front. One of the main problems of course is the underground cash economy with a lot of bribes at all levels. Without these bribes or “fakelaki” -  as in souvlaki – as the small envelopes apparently are called, the whole economy grinds to a halt, but with them tax collection is impossible. This is not unique to Greece. Throughout the Middle East “bakshish” is rampant and it does make things different to integrate into the “core” values of the European community. But for the next week things look promising. Even Yellen is sticking to her timetable of one move this year.

KORS revisited

KORS july 10 2015

We got this one wrong, twice in a row, in both cases because we interpreted wedges as 5th waves whereas, with hindsight, we now know that they were not. Counting waves is an art and not a science therefore it is always advisable to ignore those trade ideas that are incorrect – you do that by using stops.

     Now that we are here $35 looks to be the right target, perhaps even a little too low. There is a whole cluster of potential targets at that level or just above. For one thing it is the level of wave 4 of previous degree, maybe. It would be a correction of 61.8% at about $38. Both the MACD and the RSI are calling for a turn. Particularly the RSI is improving from an unusually low reading not seen on this stock since inception or on most stocks in general. It is a buy here or between here and $35 for , at least, a decent bounce that should reach the gap or perhaps even close it.

AVP, Avon update

Just a little over a month ago we suggested that this stock might be a buy at about, give or take, $6. Here we are today at that price and have no reason to change our mind.

AVP june 6 2015 savp jul 9 2015

The stock was at $6.70 at the time but as we were looking for symmetry we chose the point where the two legs would be vector equal, that is $6.

This is a multi-level sales organisation that has been around for as long as anyone can remember. Not the best business model but on the positive side it is perhaps good to keep in mind that the stuff that they sell is counter-cyclical. Also the RSI and MACD are holding up nicely despite the stock’s slide. The stock is down about $40 on $46, or 87%, quite an impressive correction. A buy for the serious investor!

HAL, Halliburton update

Hal july 9 2015

In our previous blog we expressed the view that this stock, having been unable to get back up to the $56 level of the 4th wave, might be ready to start the next leg down. On second thought we have to acknowledge that may not (yet) be the case. The a-b-c correction may just be one half of the correction that may get more complex. That scenario would fit better with the energy group. Perhaps Dick Cheney can use his many charming ways to support the stock a little longer.

The XEG in Toronto looks very similar, even has a higher resolution. Here are then & now charts;

xeg apr 28 2015XEG jul 9 2015