Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

AMZN, Amazon.com and BABA

amzn july 19 2015 vbamzn july 19 2015s

For full disclosure see previous blog of some three years ago which was dead wrong. This time we have a few more things to hang our hat on. First and foremost, as always, it would appear that a five wave sequence is coming to an end. The exact subdivisions are debatable but not that sequence and the channel. Shorter term we have a very nice triangle that, under the circumstances, almost has to be a fourth wave. The “thrust” out of the triangle is much bigger than the triangle’s mouth measures and will probable develop as a 1.618x multiple thereof. The fifth wave itself could be coming to an end soon if the count shown is correct. Wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 so wave 5 has to be shorter than wave 3. Alternatively we are about to complete 3 and still need 4 and 5. Given the trend lines, the position right above the apex and the fact that we will soon be at $500 we think it is a sell at that level or just below.

By the way, this stock is up more than $200 over the last 6 to 7 months and is now approaching JP Morgan in terms of market cap. Annualised this increase approximates 150% which is  more than the Shanghai index did. Everything is relative.

If you want to stay in this space, BABA may be a suitable alternative;

baba july 19 2015

It appears to have already completed 5 waves down and could therefore climb back to at least $95. Yahoo is looking to unload the shares it owns by creating a separate company. If they get the OK to do that as a tax-free roll-over the $32 bln. in stock should be absorbed relatively easily. The IPO price, incidentally, was $68.