Housing in Toronto, no bubble.

The Toronto Star is not generally admired for it’s business section, which, by the way, is often combined with the sports section. That tells you where the priorities are. Nevertheless, if you happen to live in the country this is the only paper available, and, on occasions they do come up with some real gems. Craig Desson’s contribution today is one of those gems. For 3 or 4 homes he went back to the 1915 (precisely a century ago!) offerings, compared those with what the Bank of Canada thinks is the inflation adjusted value today, and then compares that with the most recent sale price for that property. Here are two examples;

housing in TorontoHousing in Toronto 2

Assuming the math is correct houses went up in price, on average for these two, 20.52X as the result of inflation. Put in other words, you have lost a little more than 90% of the value of your money in 100 years. But, over and above that, houses are now 8X more valuable than they should be on an inflation adjusted basis alone.

It should be patently clear from these numbers that there is no reason whatsoever to think that there might be a bubble in Toronto!

RY, Royal Bank

ry june 1 2015

A few days ago Royal reported 2nd quarter earnings (1st quarter of the year) and they were good. The Royal now makes profits of $2.5 bln. every quarter or $10 bln. a year. To put that in perspective that is roughly $282. for every man woman and child in the country. There are about 35.4 mln. people in Canada.   The Royal has about 78.000 employees both full and part time, so the profits are about $128.205,00 per employee. Nothing to sneeze at. They were about to nickel and dime us for a little more but then, at the very last moment, decided to drop that idea, at least for now.

Looking at the EW count, this looks like a complete correction from the Feb. low. Ergo the next big move should be down.