The usual then, May 27th, and now charts of the NYSE. This is one of the many “wedges that we identified over the past few months. Unlike the Nasdaq, which still has the possibility of going slightly higher, this wedge is so clean, tidy and perfect that we would be very surprised if the top was not already in. We remain open to the notion that the entire structure from the October low is a wedge. Alternatively it is not impossible to assume a large triangle followed by a wedge. In both cases the structure is complete.
Furthermore it is not that hard to see an initial 5 wave leg down followed by an a-b-c corrective wave 2. I cannot get charts in sufficient detail to properly make that determination with a lot of confidence. Nevertheless it does not require a leap of faith and in the overall context of this index it is reasonable to conclude, at least for the NYSE, that the bear market started on the 21 of May 2015 at 11254.87. The RSI and MACD appear to be in agreement.
There are other wedges like this that are equally clear. The FTSE is another index that is identical to this one but has already come down much faster. Both traded just a few days ago at levels they were at more than a year ago! The FTSE actually two years ago.
