These silly 100 to 200 point days take their toll. But no matter how you slice and dice this wedge it is coming to an end. We did not break the lower support line so there still is a possibility for one more, marginally higher high but after that it should be game over. There simple is no more room.
Essentially our approach, lately, to this stock has been that you cannot go wrong being long. Having said that, we must confess not being sure of the exact count which , normally, should invoke the “when in doubt, get out” adage.
Our target, right from the beginning, was around $59 which was basically met. In the long run we do expect much lower values but there should be a substantial and tradable rebound in the interim. Because of this we expect the first big leg down (what you are looking at on this chart) to be five waves, for wave A, followed by a B rebound and then the C down to much lower levels. In the above chart the 5-waves are quite clear in the middle from about $82 to $60. At both ends it is a bit more precarious. We suspect that there was a series of two 1-2’s at the top. This should then result in two corresponding 4-5’s at the bottom. One way to ascertain that is using the guideline of alternation. When there are two very similar structures in succession obviously there is no alternation and this may point to there being a difference in degree! This is exactly what we seem to have. Alternatively there is a wedge. Either way this should be bought at $60 or less. For perfectionists $58 or less.
The alternative, that is an a-b-c X a-b-c double zig-zag correction is shown below. The target for either a zig-zag 5-3-5 explained above , or the double zig-zag is about the same at around $45 or a little lower. See below in beige,
Then, 23d of April 2015, and now charts as usual;
Almost a month has gone by and as of this morning this index managed to gain all of 10 points or so. There is still some ambiguity as to the exact count but this is becoming less important as soon there simple will not be any room left to manoeuver. There is absolutely no question that this is a wedge.
The usual then, Jan. 2015, and now charts;
Here again we had a wedge, possible also a thrust from a triangle. It looked like the top was in already in January but that , with the benefit of hindsight, was clearly wrong which often happens with these wedges as they should contain 3-wave legs but any two of those is itself also a 3-wave leg. In any event the harm was minimal as the stock only went a dollar or two higher. It would have allowed for a better exit. We still fully expect the stock to reach about $50, the base of the wedge (and the low of the triangle). Then after a solid rebound of $10+ another leg down should start. Wait for the rebound to sell if you have not done so. For those so inclined it should be a tradable bounce.