Then , March 13, and now charts as usual;
Halliburton could still go a little higher, nevertheless we would sell here. The stock has done what was expected so the C leg, if we get one, could start any moment now.
Month: April 2015
OIL update
Oil has made it to $59.40 ( now on the June futures contract ), and that is pretty close to the $60 target. Where it goes from here is not perfectly clear but the one thing we do know is that, unlike the Fed. interest rate, it is not going to stay at this level for 6, or more, years. It will move either up or down. Our unsubstantiated bias is still to the downside.
GPRO update
GPRO did not get enough attention. When it got to about $45 (where the 3 is) it could have completed an initial a-b-c down. However it continued lower and in March reached the level of wave 4 of previous degree AND about 62% retracement. The timing was also near perfect as the lock on the IPO stock was removed around the middle to end of February. Clearly that was a significant low so a rebound was to be expected. We are getting exactly that. The other day there was even a nice gap. We are guessing that this is just wave a up of what will become, perhaps, an a-b-c rebound. The a should stop around the 200 day moving average, roughly $57 or so, then the b should erase about 1/2 of that, about $10 to $45 or so. Then the c can take it up to around $70. That would be the tradable move that we would wait for, provided things unfold as we expect.
This stock must have read the book on EW as it is behaving accordingly. The ultimate low may be around the issue price of $24 or even lower but that is of no concern for the tradable leg we have in mind. This time we will keep an eye on it.
AAPL update.
So AAPL reported yesterday evening. All but one minor number exceeded expectations. This is a fabulous money making machine. Their gross margins are unheard of, their metrics like P/E etc, at the low or high end of where they should be. They are seriously looking at other enterprises (maybe) and just became members of the elite 30 DOW club ensuring that all the closet indexers are under invested. The cash pile they are sitting on is a dime away from $200 bln. which, by the way, is equal to the capitalization of Royal Dutch and may be used to buy back stock or other such nefarious things.
What is interesting here is not what happened, but what did not happen. Despite a few dollars up in overnight trading and early this morning, the stock is down on the day. There is also a very nice bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which would fit with the triangle EW pattern. So far the stock has traded more below than above our recent sell level. Time will tell if this continues.