Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

The 1% Club.

This is not intended as an exhaustive list of different indices , nor is the exercise without creative license , but hopefully the point will be made. That point is that there was never a time in history that so many Central Bankers did so much, for so few, with so little result.

  It will soon be March so I have simple taken the high point (about) a year ago and drew a horizontal line through the chart from there. We have – in the normal reading order – the Value Line (geometric and equal weighted) and the 2000 representing the US broad markets. Then the Footsie to complete the Anglo-Saxons. Next is the Swiss index known for a lot of good and bad things but recently best remembered for 180 degree policy turns. Then comes Italy which was thought to follow the Costa Concordia’s footsteps but somehow has managed not to do so. Spain, always a bit of a basket case, managed to hold its ground.

    All six are , or will be, within 1% of where they were a year ago! The Central Bankers keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. That is insanity. What they should understand is that the mood is what counts. When you keep saying that things are so bad that you have to keep rates low for another few years the mood is ruined. Instead they should raise rates and the mood will improve and with it the economy.