Then – Jan 23, 2015, a month ago – and now.
We, of course, did not expect the extreme possibility to occur, perhaps we should have. Everything seems to go as far as it possible can. In any event we are now within a day (or two) of that point where the c equals the a as a vector. The RSI has crept up into overbought territory and the MACD is languishing for more than a month now. This is a 36% gain in 4 1/2 months!
PS With today’s high at 11,401.66 we are there as far as I can tell.
This is a subsidiary of Phoenix Technology Services, they drill horizontal and directional holes for the gas and oil industry. It does so here in Canada, in Albania and Russia. A good business in great places and with the appropriate, we hope, reference to Phoenix what can possible go wrong??
It dropped from $16.32 to $5.21 or $11.11 and it did so in a 5-wave structure (or a double zig-zag, a-b-c X a-b-c with each leg about $6). Next it goes up in 5-waves initially. That has to be the start of a new bull or 1/2 of an a-b-c correction Either way we need another leg up. A good initial target (for a correction) is 38% of the drop which in this case would take us to $9.43. Equality between the c and a legs gets us to $10.35. The 200 day moving average is presently at $12 and that is also where wave 4 of 3 resides. So close your eyes and buy it at $7.30 and wait six weeks and chances are that you will make 41%. Before doing anything , call your broker!!
This is one of the better examples of the B-wave that we have observed all over the place. This one is in a flat. Flats typically start with 3-wave structures, not 5-waves. That is clear here but I did not catch on in time and consequently made the mistake of thinking that the upward correction was over at about $42 in 2011. It was not. It was only an intermission albeit a pretty deep one. Even so, three years later the B-wave becomes perfectly clear leaving very few alternative (The only realistic one at this time would be a very quick rise to about $55 to double-top followed by the same anticipated collapse.) In detail we have;
This may be a triangle wave 4 of c of B. It may also be a series of 1-2’s. You are presently roughly at the midpoint between those two possibilities and consequently risk/reward favours getting out now. Especially if the volatility is taken into account. In the last 5 months this stock has traveled a same amount as its value over a lifetime (thank you central bankers for bringing stability), not a time to tiptoe around.
This is fascinating stuff. The STOXX600 represents the broadest selection of European stocks. All those names that everybody recognizes even on this side of the pond are in it. Bayer, Phillips, Unilever, Nestle etc. etc. are probable in there. I think it is a sell. Here are a few reasons;
a. We are up about 30% in the last 4-5 months.
b. We are outside the channel of the past 3 years, or arguable last six years.
c. There appears to be a seven year cycle between tops and bottoms, reminescent of the Brenner cycle 7-8-9.
d. Soon the tops will connect, on a downward line proving that buy and hold sometimes does not work for 16 years.
e. RSI is getting overbought and MACD is turning.
f. If you were lucky to survive the first dive, and then the second dive are you in the mood for the 3d dive just as you are closing in on retirement?
g. Wave 5 looks very much like a wedge, not good.