Year: 2014

TSX

Hamilton

(1/2)^13= 0.000122070312

Should the TSX close today with a gain, and do it again tomorrow which would not be unusual given that it is a Friday, we will have 13 (a Fibonacci #) days with gains in a row, which looks like this;

TSX feb 20 2014

Again assuming a roughly 50-50 chance each day for winning or losing, the chances of this happening, at the outset, is 1/2 to the power of 13 or a little more than 1 chance in 10,000. As there are 220 working days this is equivalent to  once every 45+ years. According to BNN the last time this happened was in 1985, 29 years ago.

The TSX is metric, it loves tranches of about 1000 points. To do that we need to go to 14,450, another 250 points , give or take. The high on the 7th of March 2011 was 14,329 intraday, just 131 points away. As one commentator observed, even Pavlov could not have trained his dogs this well.

IMG, IamGold update

Hamilton

img feb 20 2014 lIMG feb 20 2014 s

See also previous blogs. This stock looked like a buy months age. It was but barely. Looking at it again, an argument can be made that the 5th wave (of  C in an A-B-C correction) is not yet complete. There is some overlap but that is acceptable in a diagonal. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest and as it is already shorter than wave 1, wave 5 cannot drop below $2.25. That is also where waves C and A are equal. Time will tell.

IBB, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF

Hamilton

ibb feb 2014

Top Ten Holdings
  1. Gilead Sciences Inc GILD: 7.83%
  2. Biogen Idec Inc BIIB: 7.80%
  3. Amgen Inc AMGN: 7.57%
  4. Celgene Corporation CELG: 6.82%
  5. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. REGN: 6.39%
  6. Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN: 4.63%
  7. Illumina, Inc. ILMN: 4.59%
  8. Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX: 4.13%
  9. Mylan Inc MYL: 3.74%
  10. Incyte Corp Ltd INCY: 2.52%

The top ten account for slightly more than half of all holdings, now near 10 bln. We have no idea how to count this thing, but we do know that you are in a bubble when the slope of the curve is straight up. This is about as close as you can get to the vertical.

The Federal Reserve prides itself in having juiced up the value of stocks and when you combine that with complete ignorance with respect to what you are buying the results are impressive as we have here. But it is all an illusion if you look at  it from a macro perspective. For each seller there must be a buyer so by the time the dust settles all the new wealth will have evaporated. From a micro perspective, that is you, you can make out like a bandit and we suggest you do exactly that by selling now.