Year: 2014

CEF.A Center Fund of Canada update

Hamilton

Then – August 2011 – and now charts;

cef.a aug 19 2011cef.a may 27 2014

Almost three years ago the implied prediction contained in the EW count was that this fund should fall to about $10. This is the level of a 4th wave of previous degree and also the approximate level where the fund would retrace about 62% of the entire run up from the lows of 2001 to the highs of 2014. So far we have not done that yet so the possibility still is very real that we will. The retracement from the high of $26 should unfold as an A-B-C. What we do not know is how complex a shape it might take. A rough guess would suggest that the time down should be about  1/3 to 1/2 of the time spent going up. So somewhere between 3 to 5 years. The A-B-C shown in the chart fits the best. If correct we are presently in wave 4 of C.

This outlook does not contradict what one might conclude from ABX or Goldcorp. In fact a small e up now to complete the triangle would fit quite nicely with ABX which is now down by at least $5 since we suggested it was a sell.

RDS.B Royal Dutch update

Hamilton

See our previous blog of exactly one month ago. We predicted that the stock would peak at $87 or so. Well it did. Here is the chart;

RDS.B May 27 2014

It accomplished three things. It double-topped precisely at the level it reached three times back in ‘07/08. The thrust from the triangle is precisely what the triangle measures and the channel contains most of the rise since 2009. Again , our minimum target is at $65 so if not out already sell now.

SWC, Stillwater update

Hamilton

This is a fascinating stock. Owned by Russian interest in the middle of the US wilderness (Montana) it stays under most peoples radar. They are miners of white gold, platinum. We have done very well with it and hope to continue that record (see previous blogs). Here are the updated charts;

swc may 2 2014 bswc may 27 2014

We are changing our count to a very large A-B-C X A-B-C or double zig-zag. The X is the intervening leg. If you look closely you will notice that both A-B-Cs have more or less identical structures (fractals). If correct the next big move should be wave C of the second A-B-C. If it compares well to the same corresponding wave C of the first A-B-C, it should be rather nasty and ultimately should make a new low. As usual we have no idea what might trigger such a sharp move. Perhaps new ways of building catalytic convertors, perhaps geopolitical turmoil or perhaps a leap in the alchemists’ science. Time will tell but we would sell now.

IBB update

Hamilton

IBB may 2014

Biotech is doing as expected. The corrective (wave 2) is not yet over. A reasonable target would be about  $245 where wave 4 of 3 on the way down was and /or the 62% retracement level is. Then we should move down in a wave 3 which should take this iShare down towards roughly $125.