Month: December 2014

VET, Vermilion Energy update

Hamilton

VET dec 13 2014vet dec 13 2014 s

Vermilion Energy moved into our target zone but it did not follow the diagonal pattern possibility that was brought up (see purple lines). In order to do that it should have stopped dropping a little sooner. S here is a new plan B.

   There is a very clear triangle in the Bigchart and what is more, it is situated perfectly in the middle. This is normally a sure sign that we are having to do with a B-wave. However the total distance travelled is way too far to make that plausible. Therefore it has to be a 4th wave. Typically that is where the correction goes to. In this case we are already in the range but there seems to be one down leg still missing. So $42,93 might just be the number we are looking for.   This would stop wave A down and give us a solid rally, perhaps by as much as $15 or more. Then leg C should take the stock lower.

TET, Trilogy update

Hamilton

The usual then – Nov.26, 2014 – and now charts;

tet nov 26 2014TET dec 12 20124TET doji

So we did get under $8 as predicted ( a 40% saving from $14) and now we are there. C is equal to A as a vector and we dropped to the lowest point on the way up. The RSI has been oversold for about two and a half months and the MACD idem ditto. There appear to be 5 waves at every degree and if you are into Japanese candlestick stuff we have a wonderful set of Long Shadows a sure sign of a reversal. As mentioned in the previous blog this is now a buy. That does not mean that it cannot possible go a little lower, but it does mean that if you hold on to it you should do OK.

TLM update

Hamilton

TLM dec 12 2014

So it looked like a buy on December 1, just a fraction above $5 but with the comment that it had a little further to go. So, if you did buy it <$5 you should wait un till it gets to at least $7, $6 is too low. One rule in Mergers & Acquisitions is that you should seize the moment in a very opportunistic manner but, at the same time, pay a little too much as you will have to live with the victim or its shareholders. (Think Bear Sterns and JPM). In that context $7 is a bare minimum, wait for it.

DHX.B , DHX Media Ltd.

Hamilton

dhx.b dec 12 2014DHX.b dec 12 2014 s

This company is a leading creator, producer, marketer and broadcaster of family entertainment. Inspector Gadget is one of their products.

Somebody on BNN was promoting this stock. I have never even heard of it so I have no reason to disagree with the-sky-is-the-limit approach to investing. Except for EW. This thing has a very nice 5-wave up sequence from the lows in 2009. Wave 5 is already longer than 3 and in most cases 3 is the most robust. We are not quite going vertical but we are getting close. Interestingly this stock trades at a P/E of 120x. We would be inclined to sell, not buy.