Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

TAN, Guggenheim Solar ETF

tan nov 27 2014

All eyes were on OPEC, that is Saudi Arabia but in the mean time, over many years, solar technology has improved dramatically. So much so that in the US in at least 10 States solar power is already at parity with normally (read coal) generated electricity. In most jurisdictions the subsidy mandated by the respective governments is hardly needed anymore and soon this stuff can operate on a free-market basis. As you can see from the Bigchart on the right, the process has been very painful but now that we are here the future is looking quite bright.

The efficiency of solar electricity is a function of technology, labour costs, and sunshine. Sunshine is more or less a constant and very dependent on location. Technology goes hand in hand with labour costs for an installation. Soon we will have flexible panels that can be put anywhere just like a rug without the need for rails and bolts. Inverters are also improving in leaps and bounds. For these reasons it is not at all farfetched that this ETF is at the start of a new bull market. The minimum upside, given where the triangle is, is at around 120 which would suggest a tripling from these levels. Use a stop at <$32.50