HGU and ZJG

HGU.TO - nov 12 2014ZJG.TO - nov 12 2014

Now that gold seems to have completed 5-waves down I am asked repeatedly what you should buy. This blog cannot give advice because, for one, I have no idea who you, the reader, are. A basic tenet of the “know your client” or KYC philosophy. Having said that and assuming you are highly disciplined, a totally hypothetical case as neither you or I are, then these two ETFs come to mind.

Gold dropped from a high of 1922 to a low of 1140 or so, a total of roughly 800 points. A normal retracement target would be roughly 38% or about $300 which would bring us to 1440. Applying that to gold ;

gld nov 12 2014

we find that that brings us back to roughly August of 2013. This just happens to coincide with the high points in both the triangles on the HGU and ZJG. Keep in mind that the HGU is supercharged being levered 2 to 1. If you are confident what is there not to like? I have left the charts at similar sizes so you can move them around and compare.

NYA and GDOW updates.

nya nov 8 2014gdow nov 8 2014

The New York Index and the Global Dow index topped out at different times, with the GDOW’s high in July and the NYA’s in early September. The differences are less than 1 single point and less than 3 points so nothing to get too excited about. But in both cases once the drop gets serious they sport very clear 5 wave moves. Unlike the DOW and the SMI no new highs have been made, in fact the GDOW has regained only about 60% so far. This is very promising for the bear case!

 

PS, Spoke to Mrs. Dee Lusion (see previous blog) this morning by phone. There are a few obstacles to the DMM’s plan to shorten the mile. This is of course top secret but apparently there are numerous complaints that car drivers will get inundated by unruly children asking “are we there yet?” This is because actual distances have not changed so it takes longer to go from a to b. Just like with the Fed., there are unintended consequences.

F, Ford update

f 7 nov 2014

We doubt that Ford will once again go as low as $8 or less (see previous blogs). For one, we heard on BNN that Ford was the only US auto manufacturer that had made it through the great recession because it has a split share structure giving the “family” greater than normal control. Perhaps.

Secondly ,we heard that the Dept. of Motor vehicles and Measurements (DMM) under the very able stewardship of no other than Mrs. Dee Lusion, has taken a page out of the Fed. book and is planning to reduce the length of a US mile by about 20%. This will have the salutary effect of increasing the fuel consumption/mileage of US vehicles by a similar percentage, increasing their demand proportionately. Ford may even contemplate changing the name of the ubiquitous F150 to F120 in recognition of this achievement. Canada is not expected to benefit as it has gone metric a long time ago.

Swiss Gold Initiative Referendum.

Swiss Gold Referendum Latest Polls  Investing

Here are the latest poll results for the Swiss gold referendum. They speak German, French, Italian and Rheato Romance in Switzerland, but as a courtesy to those that do not speak any of these languages they always add English. What you have here is how the Swiss vote as measured against household income, the lower the income the more they are in favour and vice versa. I added the arrow to make it look like a graph. Presently 38% are in favour and 45% oppose. The mood is shifting away from the partial gold-standard, but there are still three weeks to go.

     There is a great economic lesson to be learned from this. Economics is one of the few “sciences” that always has two sides to everything. Whereas a normal creature would delight in a strong currency (the Swiss actually have for centuries), this is not always the case. The poor want a strong currency as their (imported) groceries are cheaper and the rich want a weak currency as it then becomes easier to export  chocolate, pharmaceuticals and anti-aircraft guns driving up the shares of these companies. This is clearly visible in the SMI;

$smi nov 7 2014

The Swiss Market Index is one of the few, if not the only, index to have made a new high in Europe thanks to a lot of intervention by the SNB. With the gold standard back that would not have been possible. By the way as an aside, it is also indicative of volatility. This index has moved more than 2000 points or about 25% of its value in less than two months!

Conclusion ; CB intervention tends to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Fortunately in the US the intervention has stopped working on the currency front. In fact the Fed has been relegated to second fiddle compared to the government itself quite apart from the fact that historically it was Treasury’s jurisdiction in the first place. Interestingly the US government itself is acting in a decidedly un Keynesian manner by reducing (relatively) its budget deficits, see below;

United States Government Debt to GDP  1940-2014  Data  Chart  Calendar - Goo_2014-11-07_07-24-06

Where is the beef??