Month: August 2014

SFF.v , Seafield Resources last blog.

Hamilton

sff.v

If you see a high, low and close all at the same zero level you know the end is near. A few days ago the company received the following notice;

Seafield Resources Ltd. (“Seafield” or the “Company”) (TSX-V: SFF) announces that further to its July 23, 2014 news release, it did not make an interest payment of CDN$402,317 due July 15, 2014 under its debt facility agreement (the “Facility Agreement”) with RMB Australia Holdings Limited, as lender, and RMB Resources Inc., as agent (collectively, “RMB”) (see news release dated February 21, 2013).  On August 28, 2014, the Company received from RMB a Notice of Default and Notice of Intention to Enforce Security under section 244 of the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act in respect of amounts owing under the Facility Agreement.

But previously, on Aug 8, the company announced;

Toronto, Ontario, August 8, 2014 – Seafield Resources Ltd. (TSX-V: SFF) (“Seafield” or the “Company”) announces that it has granted an aggregate of 15,650,000 incentive stock options to officers, directors, and employees of the Company, pursuant to the Company’s stock option plan. The options have been granted at an exercise price of $0.05 per share, expiring on August 8, 2019, vesting immediately. This stock option grant is subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange.

It tells you what gold mining is, unfortunately, often about. Reality will soon set in as the FirstRand group of S. Africa will attempt to collect on it’s security for the $16.5 mln. loan made just a year and a half ago. During the very short life time of this company it ploughed through roughly $45 mln. of “other people’s money”, a good part of that ending in the pockets of well paid senior managers.

CM, Commerce bank

Hamilton

cm aug 28 2014 bcm aug 28 2014 s

Same chart, just different timeframes/sizes. CIBC is the 5th largest of the big 5 in Canada. It is, arguable, best known for the “Commerce Building” in Toronto which is a very impressive structure that has been the tallest in the British Empire for decades and was completed in 1930. Other than that they have numerous buildings all over Ontario that look a little like classical Roman pillboxes that exude safety and permanence and very little imagination. They have managed to stay alive over the years and today they are the only Canadian bank that has not regained the entire loss in value of their stock due to the Great Recession. That may yet happen!

The stock has a fairly clear EW count. Alternatives exist, as always, but the path of least resistance suggest that THE top occurred in 2008, in synch with the entire world, and that from that point we had an A down followed by a B up. That this is a B and not a 5-wave sequence is, at this point in time at least, pretty obvious. The A can be counted either as a 5-wave affaire or an a-b-c wave A. The latter interpretation fits best with what is starting to look a lot like a very large flat. If it is, and we believe that it is, the next major move will be C down. It is still possible that the stock would try to double top by going a little higher but we would not suggest sticking around to find out. A sell.

We have been wrong on this stock before but a look at a previous blog can still be instructive to see what an alternative count might look like.

THI, rolling up the rim to win?

Hamilton

thi aug 27 2014

Tim Hortens is an interesting case. From the chart it is rather easy to notice that for at least a full year the coffee did very little to perk up the stock. The keen observer will see that the stock barely had a pulse and gyrated continuously between the extremes of $63.29 and $55,52, a range of $7.77 or $3.88 on either side of $59.40. For the most part the range was appreciable narrower.  This is against a back-drop of the TSX moving from 12500 to 15600 or roughly 25% over the same time interval. Precisely on Aug. 6, 2014 the stock shoots up about $8 in 4 working days and a good two weeks before the deal  with Burger King became public. BKW itself did not have such a clear move but that is not surprising as economics 101 teaches the arbitrageur to go long the target and short the predator – which ,by the way, is usually correct unless you are in a bubble where anything goes. But then this is no arbitrage, instead it has the smell of insider trading. Where is the leak in this cup? Brazil, Oakville, Omaha or from anyone of probable a few dozen advisors? In Canada we will never know as we are naive enough to believe that the insight was obtained from under the rim and in the meantime every second politician has already applauded the deal.