Year: 2013

FTSE update

Hamilton

ftse dec 09 2013ftse dec 9 2013

Again we do not know which of the two first tops is the real top. We could count it either as a series of two 4-5s, making the second top the “real” one, or count the whole thing as a complex flat wave A. What does stand out fairly clearly, is that the latest climb up is a B-wave. It is near impossible to count it otherwise. From that point – 22 of May 2013 -   the index starts down with a perfectly clean and unmistakeable 5-wave wave 1. The rebound again is an unmistakeable 3-wave a-b-c that does not make a new high. We should now, if all this is correct, be in wave 1 of 3 of C. There could be a long way to go.

After an extended wave, which the one from 1985 ,or earlier, to 2000 on the chart clearly is, it is normal for the next pull-back to reach approximately the level of wave 2 of that extended wave. In this case that is the peak in late 1987 when we had the single largest one day pull-back. That level is at about 2500 on this index.

This count could be wrong if this index is in the early stages of making a contracting diagonal triangle ( read; wedge) the only structure that has overlap. This possibility that is in any event highly unlikely, will for all intents and purposes be negated with a drop below the lower trend-line where the index presently sits. Time will tell.

Russell 2000 and Dow, update

Hamilton

RUT dec 6 2013DJIA dec 6 2013

A month or so ago we called for a top at around 1150 on the Russell 2000, not including a very common throw-over. We are there today and, in the mean time the Dow has managed to catch up with the pattern. The patterns are obviously not the same in EW terms and it is beyond my pay-scale to determine if this is one big expanding triangle (as with the Russell) or a series of 4-5s as with the DOW or , alternatively, a complex A followed by a B. In any event it is not the Jaws of something, which, like the serpent in Loch Ness (yes I was there) does not exist. Regardless these are not pretty patterns as the next big move should be down. The FTSE with its initial 5 waves down back in May/June (not shown), has still not negated itself and remains bearish.

TRQ, Turquoise Hill Resources (former Ivanhoe)

Hamilton

We bailed out of this stock with a nice profit back in August because it was not following the script. In the mean time things are clearing up at much lower levels.

trq dec 4 2013

All the action since is in a triangle 4th wave. It measures to an ultimate level of about $3, or even a little below that, say $2.75 Remember that this stock comes from almost $30. It should be a screaming buy at that level.

BA, Boeing update

Hamilton

Then and now;

BA july 12 2013ba nov 22 2013

Again we got it wrong. We did not expect the stock to move much above $105  in the B-wave. Having said that the wave count itself still looks to be just fine so we would expect, at the very least, that the doubling in the last year will be completely retraced and then some. Most other technical indicators , such as RSI and MACD more or less confirm this. The p/e was close to 24x, pretty rich for this kind of industrial company. For the gutsy types this may be worth doing a put on.