Short-term analysis using EW can be a little difficult due to the dearth of data points , so far so good so we will hazard an educated guess. Wave 3 of one (or A) was completed this morning right on the open. All action during the day was wave 4 and Tuesday we will do wave 5 of one – most of that will already be done in the US as they are open Monday. This should take us above $6 Then wave 2 (or B) back to $4.50 or so and then the next leg up. In the mean time rumours have it that the great-great-grandson of Genghis Kahn has challenged the CEO of Rio Tinto (or a substitute if he so chooses) to a friendly pony horse race across the Mongolian steppes. He will lose ,of course, and if he can keep his head, he will, as that is what local etiquette demands. This will lead to a new budding friendship and all the minor flies in the ointment will be removed and Mongolia will prosper for years to come. This stock will flie once again.
Year: 2013
BB update
When you practise EW it is best not to think, for some that is not a problem, for others like myself , that is the hardest part. Here it is, a very clear completed a – b – c correction with the b as a triangle (somewhere). It drops back to the area of the 4th wave of previous degree, erases about 2/3 of the initial rise in wave 1. All exactly what a 2d wave is supposed to do! So maybe that is what it is: then there are only two possibilities. Wave 3 is next, or, a wave C of a much larger A-B-C counter trend correction is coming. In both cases the stock should one day trade close to about $21. Just do it, don’t think about it. Using a stop at $8 will make it easier to swallow.
Shanghai Index , the engine of the World’s growth?
China’s economy has been growing at somewhere between 11 to 6% for the past decade or longer. In 2009 they launched a stimulus package of nearly 700 bln., which, relative to the economy was arguable larger than in the US or anywhere else for that matter. The state owned banking system has carte blanche to play fast and loose with all the normal constricting concepts such as capital adequacy, return on capital etc.etc. A more liberal environment is hard to imagine, yet the stock market is down by 2/3 from the peak and even 43% from the rebound high in ‘09. The S&P500, in contrast, is up more than a 100% from the lows and about half of that after the initial rebound.
Very judiciously I chose 1996 as the starting year for this chart. That was the year when the Maestro Greenspan coined the phrase “irrational exuberance”. Now 17 years later we are still higher by 200%, amazingly enough on BOTH indices. China and the US performed in an identical way over that period. Today the US made new highs, supposedly on the good ISM numbers in, of all places, China. Apparently the US Pavlov dogs are better trained than those in China, and in the end, of course, it is all about the mood. The picture below from the World Health organisation might explain a lot of the difference;
And , of course, shanghaiing refers to the practice of kidnapping sailors described as follows. The most straightforward method for a crimp to shanghai a sailor was to render him unconscious, forge his signature on the ship’s articles, and pick up his "blood money." This approach was widely used, but there were more profitable methods. Wikepedia.
Could it be that the Americans have perfected the art and found the more profitable methods?