Year: 2013

ETN, Eaton Corp. PLC update

Hamilton

ETN, Eaton Corp aug 3 2013

Jan. 14th of 2012 we were absolutely sure that this stock was a sell. Nice B wave followed by a first wave down and a retracement that should not have exceeded $55.  It didn’t and the stock promptly lost about 30% of it’s value. Nice but not good enough. Here we are again at $70. This time we can argue that there is another, much larger B-wave. It is rather large but perhaps not in the context of the 3.5 trillion that the Fed. has used to force you into equities. We are at the original upper trend line and would again sell any time now between here and $75. Target under EW rules is $15

By the way, if the B-wave is viewed as too large, not unreasonable, than we would have no problem with a 5th wave instead from the lows of $15. The end result, once the dust settles, should be about the same.

AGF.B , AGF Management Ltd. update.

Hamilton

agf.b aug 3 2013agf.b aug 3 2013 s

Some previous blogs were fairly accurate but we forgot to follow up. It seems like the whole investment industry has forgotten this company that was once a role model for the mutual fund industry. Somehow they managed to make themselves irrelevant much faster than their peers. If, repeat IF, our analysis today is anywhere near correct the company will soon be completely irrelevant.

In the big picture we appear to be looking at an A-B-C zig-zag correction from the highs of $40. This is a 5-3-5 structure. Anyway we are in the C part and Cs are always 5 waves. Problem is that we have not made a new low which we should. The other problem is that wave 4 of C already overlaps with wave 1 of C. This is an absolute no-no EXCEPT if we are looking at an expanding diagonal triangle. These occur only in 5th wave positions (or Cs) and are the only pattern that allows overlap, indeed it is normal to have overlap. This last leg may go all the way to the trend line but frequently does not quite get there. A $4 or $3 target would be perfectly compatible with this scenario. Note that both the RSI and MACD are not confirming the recent new highs.  A sell.

F, update

Hamilton

f aug 3 2013

In our last blog on Ford , in Oct. of 2012, we recommended F as a buy at about $7.80 (see previous blog).  We missed the boat by a fraction and now we are changing our count. Instead of being in wave 3 up we suspect the stock is still correcting the move up from below $1 to $19. The initial wave down to $8.70 or $8.56 would be wave a. The rise back up , where we are now, would be wave b. Wave c could start any moment and could reach that $7.80 level or even lower this time around. Sell now and see if it breaks down as it should. The RSI and MACD are supporting this outlook.  Given this structure so far, a flat 3-3-5 would make the most sense which argues that the low was at $8.70, not $8.56. For the moment, who cares?