Year: 2013

AAPL update

Hamilton

aapl aug 16 2013

So we guessed incorrectly. Here is another guess.  The stock came from $688.66 and dropped to $380.06, so the distance travelled is $308.60. Multiplied by 0.382 gives $117.88. Add back the low of $380.06 and you arrive at $497.94. Given that other services have the high more like $702, the result is remarkable close to a minimum rebound level. Insider trading is defined as trading on info that is not readily available to the public. How that works when a hedge fund has a chat with the CEO and then tells the world is not entirely clear. In any event it may be time to step aside. Big buybacks are the equivalent of pulling yourself up by your bootstraps which, according to a lot of financial types, is the equivalent of a fat dividend and therefore good. The only minor fly in the ointment is that it can also be viewed as recognition of the fact that there is nothing left to invest in, not what you want to hear from a company that supposedly keeps creating it’s own future. The pot now sits at $146 bln. A sell nevertheless.

BCE update

Hamilton

In a previous blog, back in March, we opined that we very much doubted that the stock would trade above $48.50. It did not. Here is the detailed picture;

bce aug 16 2013

From the peak of $48.27 it traced out an initial 5-wave sequence down (about 16%). It then did an A up right to the apex of a 4th wave triangle and then collapsed again, almost to where it started the rebound. That is clearly a B-wave. Now the C should take the stock to about $45, the highest level in that triangle ( and possible a little higher). There is an alternative, the B could become a triangle which really doesn’t change anything except the timing. As it happens $45 is also a clean 62% Fibo retracement. So a buy here if you play for small gains and then a sell again as you get closer to $45.

FTSE, Footsie update

Hamilton

ftse aug 15 2013

This Bloomberg chart of the London stock index shows that our (and the boys in Gainesville) opinion that an initial 5-wave down may indicate the start of something much bigger could be correct. The Dow did manage a new high, a possibility that we had considered, but the FTSE did not and, in fact, stopped retracing within a hundred points or so of our target of , roughly, 6500. We shall see what comes next but what is clear now is that the bear side is gaining traction.

ABX update

Hamilton

abx aug 15 2013 update

ABX needs at least one more day up which may happen tomorrow. At $21.50 we would sell for a gain of about $6 which on $14.5 is 40+% and more if you did it in two separate trades. The stock may go higher but we just like the bird in the hand thing a lot more than speculating. There is a train coming by everyday!