Year: 2013

JCP, a buy again!

Hamilton

Just like BBY, Best Buy, JC Penney is very promising, even for a second trade, first the big picture;

bby aug 20 2013jcp aug 20 2013

There are differences but what they have in common is a very well shaped C wave . JCP actually took the biggest dive and as you can see from BBY there is usually very little rhyme or reason for the moves (other than EW). In more detail for JCP we get;

jcp aug 20 2013 sbjcp aug 20 2012

The wedge is a 5th wave of C. There is a good deal of overlap which increases the confidence in labelling this as a wedge (or a contracting diagonal in EW lingo). There is even a nice 4th wave triangle to add to the confidence. A buy with a first target of $28, a double! All this on a massive quarterly loss, just like Best Buy at the time.

TSCO, Tractor Supply Co.

Hamilton

tsco aug 19 2013

This stock traded below $1 as recently as 2001. It gains about $10 on average every year. We thought $70 was already pretty good. $125 is really good and we would sell. It trades at a p/e of about 28x, nearly twice the norm for the market as a whole. This is a great store even if the name is a bit of a misnomer. You can get all sorts of hardware and tools, rat poison, seeds, cedar posts and aerators and the overalls and other clothing that you need when using them. A bit like Home Hardware and your local Co-op combined. EW wise the best we can come up with is a very extended 3d wave and a 5th that is roughly equal to wave one. Not a lot but enough to suggest that if you were lucky enough to own this one, to sell it now.

FNV Franco Nevada, update

Hamilton

The usual then –Oct 6, 2012 – and now charts;

fnv oct 2012FNV aug 18 2013

Then we expected it to fall immediately roughly from $60 to $36 (a 4th wave!). It did and then some. We unfortunately did not follow up on this stock but obviously it was a buy again at $32  after 5 waves down. It has now done an a-b-c clear counter trend bounce covering 6 out of 11 blocks so it is above 50% but below 62%. A sell again on balance.

DH, Davis & Henderson update

Hamilton

DH aug 18 2013

From our friends at the Globe & Mail. We got this one dead wrong. The top was in August 2005. The present top is a B-wave top as far as we can tell. It may not be quite complete but even so we would exit any long position. Cheque books, especially those with panoramic scenes on them may still be in vogue but it does have the same connotation as the buggy whip. A sell.